That came from a margin trader [*] and prediction market blogger.

Well, if you practice (amateur or professional) journalism (which blogging is), then I don&#8217-t see how you can be interesting to your audience if you are &#8220-aligned&#8221- with one prediction exchange in particular &#8212-whether it&#8217-s InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair-TradeFair. Journalism should be independent. Caveat Bettor, who is a great amateur prediction market journalist, and who overall supports InTrade-TradeSports, is not &#8220-aligned&#8221- with them. He makes up his own mind, and would occasionally disapproves an InTrade or TradeSports policy he can&#8217-t stand. As a reader, I trust Cav. Mike Smithson is not &#8220-aligned&#8221- with BetFair. I trust Mike Smithson. In general, I trust any web editor and publisher who has an independent editorial line. (And if that blogger can foster diversity of opinion on his/her blog, that&#8217-s better.) &#8220-Aligned&#8221-??? A blogger should be out of line.

[*] Margin traders and prediction market researchers are very much dependent from their prediction exchange, just like heroin addicts are from their dope dealer. They are at the mercy of the executive running the exchange. No trading data = no academic career in the field of prediction markets. Don&#8217-t expect the full truth from addicts. And when a scandal breaks out, those academics plunge under their bed. (Robin Hanson is one of the rare exceptions, because he does not specialize in meta analysis. He is more a new-institution designer, and thus less dependent from the InTrade trading data than the other researchers. That doesn&#8217-t make him a courageous white knight, though.)

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

• Robin Hanson wants to rule the world —just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.
• Predictify got funded… Great for those who will be hired… But is it a good thing, overall?
• Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.
• TradeSports-InTrade — Check Deposits
• BetFair Australia fought for free trade across Australian state boundaries… and won.