Monthly Archives: November, 2007
Published less than one hour ago. Already indexed by Bo Cowgill’s Google Search.
So quick.
Frightening.
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Previously: TradeFair Binaries User Guide – What is Trading?
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TradeFair Binaries User Guide – What is Trading?
TradeFair Binaries Account — TradeFair Binaries Charges — TradeFair Binaries FAQ — TradeFair-BetFair Rules & Regulations — TradeFair Binaries User Guide —
What is best execution?
What does the changing background indicate on the trading platform?
What is my net position for a market?
How is my average price calculated?
What is Trading?
What is Close Out?
What is Realised P&L?
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What [...]
2007 Australian political elections: Polls vs Bookmakers
Andrew Leigh:
[...] the polls got 12 seats wrong, while the markets got 7 seats wrong [...]
Previously: Justin Wolfers Country has turned Left… as predicted by the prediction markets.
Meet T.D. Thornton, US evangelizer of BetFair.
Photo by Patrick Lentz (excerpted from a New York Times story on US horse racing)
Previously: Slate publishes a BetFair explainer for the Americans, written by T.D. Thornton.
PIECE OF EVIDENCE #2 THAT BETFAIR-TRADEFAIR ARE MINDING THE PREDICTION MARKETS.
TradeFair Binaries:
Hint: A binary bet represents the probability or percentage likelihood of an event happening. In the example above the price is 66 to sell and 67 to buy. You should buy if you think there is a greater than 67% likelihood of the event happening OR sell if you think the probability is less [...]
Eventis Capital = great site name + empty content
Eventis Capital
As I told Brad, the keys are to:
set up a usable (= simple) website;
build great content on prediction markets;
get incoming links from big bloggers;
obtain a PageRank superior or equal to 5/10;
have Google Search send you hundreds of visitors per day;
create a community on prediction markets.
As of today, Brad has failed miserably in all of [...]
Our event derivatives should be cleared, quoted, liquid, transparent and regulated.
… just like ECX’s financial instruments (look at the bottom of the screen shot):
Inkling’s Dead Radiohead Market
Radiohead’s pick-your-own-price experiment, industry redefining move, publicity stunt for their album “In Rainbows” has had its 15 days or so of fame. Is there anybody out there still caring? Maybe not.
In fact, judging by Inkling’s own Radiohead prediction market, the answer is absolutely No. A few days after announcing their free pilot program smack in [...]
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