Monthly Archives: November 2007

Published less than one hour ago. Already indexed by Bo Cowgill’s Google Search.

So quick. Frightening. — Previously: TradeFair Binaries User Guide – What is Trading? —

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TradeFair Binaries User Guide – What is Trading?

TradeFair Binaries Account — TradeFair Binaries Charges — TradeFair Binaries FAQ — TradeFair-BetFair Rules & Regulations — TradeFair Binaries User Guide — What is best execution? What does the changing background indicate on the trading platform? What is my net … Continue reading

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The next US President is Hillary Clinton. Probability is about 50%.

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2007 Australian political elections: Polls vs Bookmakers

Andrew Leigh: [...] the polls got 12 seats wrong, while the markets got 7 seats wrong [...] Previously: Justin Wolfers Country has turned Left… as predicted by the prediction markets.

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Meet T.D. Thornton, US evangelizer of BetFair.

Photo by Patrick Lentz (excerpted from a New York Times story on US horse racing) Previously: Slate publishes a BetFair explainer for the Americans, written by T.D. Thornton.

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PIECE OF EVIDENCE #2 THAT BETFAIR-TRADEFAIR ARE MINDING THE PREDICTION MARKETS.

TradeFair Binaries: Hint: A binary bet represents the probability or percentage likelihood of an event happening. In the example above the price is 66 to sell and 67 to buy. You should buy if you think there is a greater … Continue reading

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TRADEFAIR BINARIES OPENS FOR BUSINESS TODAY.

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Eventis Capital = great site name + empty content

Eventis Capital As I told Brad, the keys are to: set up a usable (= simple) website; build great content on prediction markets; get incoming links from big bloggers; obtain a PageRank superior or equal to 5/10; have Google Search … Continue reading

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Our event derivatives should be cleared, quoted, liquid, transparent and regulated.

… just like ECX’s financial instruments (look at the bottom of the screen shot):

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Inkling’s Dead Radiohead Market

Radiohead’s pick-your-own-price experiment, industry redefining move, publicity stunt for their album “In Rainbows” has had its 15 days or so of fame. Is there anybody out there still caring? Maybe not. In fact, judging by Inkling’s own Radiohead prediction market, … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Cases, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments