FREAKONOMICS HAS SUCCEEDED IN PERSUADING POPSCI PPX TO CREATE A JATROPHA BIOFUEL PREDICTION MARKET.

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Victory of the mind over matter!!!!!!

The PopSci PPX prediction exchange has finally created a jatropha biofuel prediction market, as the Freakonomics blog was suggesting them to do.

[…] some Goldman Sachs data on the estimated cost per barrel of fuel made from a variety of sources:

Cellulose: $305
Wheat: $125
Rapeseed: $125
Soybean: $122
Sugar Beets: $100
Corn: $83
Sugar Cane: $45
Jatropha: $43

Now, the second part of the equation is to promote this new prediction market, so it gets traded and a running-time probabilistic prediction is generated. (The interaction between a blog audience and a prediction market is part of my concept of X group. I&#8217-m bullish on that.)

Next: Freakonomics + PopSci PPX = Not yet an X group + THE FREAKONOMICS BLOG AND THE JATROPHA PREDICTION MARKET AT POPSCI PPX NOW FORM AN X GROUP.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 9 days. We have 9 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • Forrest Nelson valids Emile Servan-Schreiber.
  • Averaging One’s Guesses
  • Americans love rankings, but Americans hate to be assessed subjectively.
  • A libertarian view on the Internet betting and gambling industry in the United States of America
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 10 days. We have 10 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The Numbers Guy

Prediction markets is a meta forecasting tool.

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Bet on It! – (page two – page three + a crappy listing of exchanges) – by Steven Cherry

[…] Chris F. Masse, a [] consultant in Sophia Antipolis, France, who specializes in prediction markets, says that by 2010, “10 percent of Fortune 500 companies will have gone public about their use of internal prediction markets, and probably another 10 percent will be testing some projects.” […]

As [Robin] Hanson notes, “the winners are attracted by losers, just as wolves are attracted by sheep.” […]

I made a point to this journalist, and since he has not published it, I will share it with you. I said that prediction markets, as an information aggregation mechanism, is a meta forecasting tool, since prediction markets feed on all the other forecasting tools. Do you, guys, agree with my censored statement?

I also made a sidebar comment to him. I said that David Perry of Consensus Point is the major evangelizer of the use of internal prediction markets, these days &#8212-once you have acknowledged Google&#8217-s public input. Agree, disagree?

Ron Paul is being silenced, BetFair is victimized in the US, and, finally, Chris Masse is censored &#8212-but we all try to resist. :-D We will defeat these three conspiracies (which I suspect Bo Cowgill is part of), ultimately. :-D

Go reading the article, if you haven&#8217-t done already (and then read Mike Giberson&#8217-s comments). &#8212- Bet on It! – (page two – page three) &#8212- Via Steve Roman

&#8212-

UPDATE: Robin Hanson comments&#8230-

I don’t that much care about terminology here, but I do agree that prediction markets should shine best at the meta level, when competing institutions try to draw what insight they can from other institutions running in parallel.