Monthly Archives: July 2007

Eclipse Concept Jet prediction markets, anyone??

PopSci’s PPX

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FREE MONEY ON THE TABLE AT INTRADE-TRADESPORTS. GOING FAST. HURRY UP.

Last price for the “Rupert Murchoch buys the WSJ” event derivative: $85. Expected to expire at $100. INSTANT PROFIT = $15. The Wall Street Journal says it’s a done deal. – UPDATE: Official. + Code Of Conduct. The Financial Times … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Meet Peter Norman Sorensen.

Peter Norman Sorensen (professor of finance)

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Nicholas Kristoff’s ad for the InTrade prediction markets in the New York Times

Heu… Sorry… Nicholas Kristoff’s Op-Ed featuring the InTrade betting exchange in the 2007-07-30′s New York Times – $$$ … Via Freakonomics… Right now the pundit with perhaps the most outstanding record thinks Hillary Rodham Clinton has the best chance of … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Treasury chief Paulson said Congress needs to raise the debt ceiling, which is now $8.965 trillion, to avoid running short of funds in fall.

$8.965 trillion Wow.

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The PopSci PPX prediction exchange organizes many socially valuable play-money prediction markets.

Popular Science – PopSci’s PPX: Consumer Tech and Entertainment SYMBOL NAME PRICE CHANGE % CHANGE APPLEPC iPhone Increases Apple’s Computer Market Share 52.00 1.00 1.96 BLUBY09 Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD Format War 73.75 -0.75 -1.01 DRMRIP Major Record Labels Drop DRM … Continue reading

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Meet again Tyler Cowen of Marginal Revolution.

Tyler Cowen of Marginal Revolution Tyler Cowen’s book – Discover Your Inner Economist: Use Incentives to Fall in Love, Survive Your Next Meeting, and Motivate Your Dentist.

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Crooks And Liars

… is The Blog Of The Day. Crooks And Liars – Very well informed and very critical of the media and the Bush administration. Probably Democratic leaning. Or, at least, anti Republican. –> Don’t miss the blog post on Pat … Continue reading

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Which prediction market firms are profitable?

Profitable: – BetFair (a lot) – Annual Report 2006 – PDF – InTrade-TradeSports – HSX – NewsFutures – Consensus Point – Inkling Markets — Which other prediction market firm(s) should be added in the list, you think?? (Midas Oracle is … Continue reading

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The Sim Exchange has hired an analyst specialized in the video game industry.

Jesse Divnich

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