So at Justin&#8217-s and my suggestion, Intrade has just listed a contract on whether the XM-Sirius merger will close.

(We&#8217-ve been waiting for a nice, juicy, controversial merger like this ever since Hp-Compaq.)

Interestingly, the MM has it at 60 bid/70 ask to close by June 08, but if you look at the stock prices of XMSR and SIRI, they have lost some of their initial announcement effect. There might be some free money on the table for the quick (I am abstaining).

If there is interest in this contract, I might be able to get them to run a contract on future subscription prices and subscribers (either conditional on the merger closing or just straight up). If you think about it, this could be an interesting tool for evaluating mergers in the future.

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