So at Justin’-s and my suggestion, Intrade has just listed a contract on whether the XM-Sirius merger will close.
(We’-ve been waiting for a nice, juicy, controversial merger like this ever since Hp-Compaq.)
Interestingly, the MM has it at 60 bid/70 ask to close by June 08, but if you look at the stock prices of XMSR and SIRI, they have lost some of their initial announcement effect. There might be some free money on the table for the quick (I am abstaining).
If there is interest in this contract, I might be able to get them to run a contract on future subscription prices and subscribers (either conditional on the merger closing or just straight up). If you think about it, this could be an interesting tool for evaluating mergers in the future.
Like the idea? Spread the word.
#1. When there is more liquidity, I may publish their dynamic chart. It’s easy: copy the InTrade-TradeSports code lines and paste it in the “code” part of the blog editor.
#2. I have looked into how many people clicked into the ABC7 Futures Markets link and was disappointed —an insignificant number. Maybe the Midas Oracle readers don’t like play-money prediction markets much. I will check about this one.
#3. What is needed is a relationship between some finance blogs and some prediction exchanges (InTrade or else), so that when such an interesting event derivative contract is created, many finance blogs plug it and the prediction market can get going. (Same idea for other topics, other than finance.)
[…] merger — REDUX As you know from reading this group blog yesterday, InTrade-TradeSports created a new set of predict…. I looked into the web stats this morning, and the number of web readers [*] who clicked thru the […]
[…] XM-Sirius merger + Sirius & XM prediction […]
What would be the advanced indicators used by the InTrade-TradeSports human market makers while taking early positions??