Daily Archives: January 18, 2007

What about a blog post in support of TradeSports-Intrade??

Posted on by
2

Alex Forshaw, Caveat Bettor, Steve Roman, Sacha Peter, Brad, and company:

– Would you be interested in drafting and signing a collective blog post in support of TradeSports-InTrade. It would be cross-posted on all the traders&#8217- blogs.

Read the last blog posts by Chris Masse:

Which will be the next major sportsbook to leave the US market? – REDUX

Posted on by
Reply

No Gravatar

TEN CEO John Delaney&#8217-s arrogance didn&#8217-t go unnoticed by the TradeSports-InTrade traders. How come his own betting exchange wasn&#8217-t included in the gambling industry prediction market??

&#8212-

Todd73NJ:

How come TradeSports isn&#8217-t listed on there&#8230- since the contract will be on Intrade, which will be a separate company shortly, I don&#8217-t think listing TS would be a crazy idea. Would probably be the highest volume traded of all of them.

I&#8217-d trade the TS contract&#8230- And I only use one of those other books regularly which I know will be the last one to fall for sure&#8230- So I really only have interest in TS and World Sports Exchange

Abacus:

They used the term &#8220-sportsbook&#8221- so they could leave TS off by claiming it is an &#8220-exchange&#8221- and not a &#8220-sportsbook&#8221-.

Guys, I&#8217-m glad you put it up but it is meaningless unless you include your own company.

Do the right thing and change the contract.

Suggested modification:

Next major online entertainment company to withdraw from the US:

Betcris
B*d*g
Greek
Sportsbook.com
Tradesports
W*ex
None

Discussion about applicability of prediction markets for long-term prediction!

Posted on by
13

No Gravatar

For now, prediction markets are mostly used for short- or mid-term prognosis horizons.

The pay-off for the traders is contingent upon the real event. That means they have to wait until the actual event occurs, before they know what their prognosis is worth and what the pay-off for each contract is.

What about long-term events?

For long-term prediction, this doesn’t seem to be a practicable way. Waiting till 2020 when e.g. the real unemployment rate is published does not provide an incentive to trade shares for this.

But what could be a way to construe a reasonable pay-off function?

One possible approach by Prof. Spann at the University of Passau is to run two separate prediction markets concurrently. All information about prices, traders etc. of market A would not available for traders of market B and contrary.

The pay-off for Market A would be the final price of Market B and vice versa.

So it is possible to run an virtual market for e.g. 2 months predicting the outcome of an event in 2020.Another way is to let an expert(s) assess the event an use his (their) opinions as the pay-off function.

Furthermore the own end-price of the market could be the pay-off. But then manipulation is to be expected.
I&#8217-m looking forward to discuss this challenge with you!

P.S. www.Ideosphere.com seems to be a prediction market for long term predictions, but they don’t provide a solution for the problem.

BetFair Multiples??

Posted on by
Reply

No GravatarBetFair Multiples – in the Racing Post, page 89 – Thursday, January 18, 2007

I would appreciate if a U.K.-based Midas Oracle reader informed me or sent me excerpts. Thanks. Will make up to you. I heard that it means that BetFair is going to become a bookmaker, but I can&#8217-t believe my eyes.

Betfair previously only accepted single bets on match results forcing punters wishing to make multiple match bets – such as trebles and accumulators – to go to traditional firms like William Hill and Ladbrokes.

But now, in a radical move, the Hammersmith based company are ready to accept multiples. In a major shift in strategy, Betfair itself will act as the bookmaker offering odds taken from their person-to-person singles football markets.

The company claim they will invariably offer better odds than High Street rivals even allowing for five per cent commission. Steve High, Betfair&#8217-s product manager, said: &#8220-Our aim is to be the biggest online betting company.&#8221-

(Thanks to Fabian John for the link.)

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Robin Hanson wants to rule the world —just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.
  • Predictify got funded… Great for those who will be hired… But is it a good thing, overall?
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.
  • TradeSports-InTrade — Check Deposits
  • BetFair Australia fought for free trade across Australian state boundaries… and won.