Monthly Archives: December 2006

Three truths Lance Fortnow won’t tell you about Barack Obama.

1. He smokes. [Link will come alive next week.] 2. His middle name is “Hussein“. 3. His contract is stuck at 11% —and hasn’t moved much since fanboy Lance Fortnow endorsed him in early November.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Sirius & XM prediction markets

… would be an interesting idea —Eric Zitzevitz would probably agree. Addendum (January 2, 2006): Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game has one Sirius & XM prediction market, says David Pennock in the comment area.

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Business, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The Worst Predictions of 2006

Satellite radio will rock, eBay’s on a roll in China, and Republicans will continue to rule in Washington. Thank God, prediction markets did not make the Business Week list. And to HedgeStreet’s despair [*]: PREDICTION: “A very active hurricane season … Continue reading

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What prediction exchange executives should do…

… to avoid another NKM scandal (adapted from Matt Cutts’s blog post on Google criticism): – Each [prediction exchange executive] should monitor the blogosphere for issues. Reduce the disconnect to reduce the danger. – Get more [prediction exchange executives] talking … Continue reading

Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Yves Rossy, Swiss Jet Man

— — For long-term, play-money (“alas”, as said Robin Hanson), technology prediction markets, see Ken Kittlitz‘s Foresight Exchange. (Still listening to Miles Davis at Montreux —hard rocker Joe Satriani can return to the locker room.) — Addendum:

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Order-entry and analysis software for real-money and play-money prediction markets

Well, actually, these order-entry software packages only work today for real-money prediction markets (TradeSports-InTrade and BetFair), but they will also work for play-money contracts when TradeSports-InTrade will open play-money prediction markets —same API. And my hope is that, one day … Continue reading

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Levitt’s risky prize-seeking behavior

CFM already cited Steven Levitt’s Why Are Gambling Markets Organised So Differently From Financial Markets?, but it’s worth linking to again, if only to emphasize how different prediction markets are from most sports betting, and because Levitt just linked to … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Sun MicroSystems Director: Thou Shall Blog.

Via Penelope Trunk, Tim Bray‘s Ten Reasons Why Blogging is Good For Your Career: 1. You have to get noticed to get promoted. 2. You have to get noticed to get hired. 3. It really impresses people when you say … Continue reading

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Penelope Trunk’s two pieces of advice

- One goes to TradeSports trader Alex Forshaw (and Notre Dame collegian) —see her point #2. – The other goes to Alex Costakis of HSX, who hates blogs, blogging, blogging software, bloggers, and the blogosphere.

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Assessing Wiki News, the Wikipedia’s brother

Wikipedia is a free encyclopedia (which anyone can edit); Wiki News (which anyone can edit, too) resembles a free New York Times without the Eds and Op’Eds —in a microscopic version. There are about 6 news stories each day —twice … Continue reading

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