Monthly Archives: December, 2006
Sirius & XM prediction markets
… would be an interesting idea —Eric Zitzevitz would probably agree.
Addendum (January 2, 2006): Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game has one Sirius & XM prediction market, says David Pennock in the comment area.
The Worst Predictions of 2006
Satellite radio will rock, eBay’s on a roll in China, and Republicans will continue to rule in Washington. Thank God, prediction markets did not make the Business Week list. And to HedgeStreet’s despair [*]:
PREDICTION: “A very active hurricane season is looming.” — National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, May 22, 2006
THE REALITY: Of the up to [...]
What prediction exchange executives should do…
… to avoid another NKM scandal (adapted from Matt Cutts’s blog post on Google criticism):
- Each [prediction exchange executive] should monitor the blogosphere for issues. Reduce the disconnect to reduce the danger.
- Get more [prediction exchange executives] talking online. There will be some mistakes, but the conversations will be worth it.
Yves Rossy, Swiss Jet Man
—
—
For long-term, play-money (“alas”, as said Robin Hanson), technology prediction markets, see Ken Kittlitz’s Foresight Exchange.
(Still listening to Miles Davis at Montreux —hard rocker Joe Satriani can return to the locker room.)
—
Addendum:
Order-entry and analysis software for real-money and play-money prediction markets
Well, actually, these order-entry software packages only work today for real-money prediction markets (TradeSports-InTrade and BetFair), but they will also work for play-money contracts when TradeSports-InTrade will open play-money prediction markets —same API.
And my hope is that, one day in the future, we can use ONE order-entry software to interact with ALL the prediction exchanges: [...]
Levitt’s risky prize-seeking behavior
CFM already cited Steven Levitt’s Why Are Gambling Markets Organised So Differently From Financial Markets?, but it’s worth linking to again, if only to emphasize how different prediction markets are from most sports betting, and because Levitt just linked to a version of the paper with much nicer formatting.
Levitt’s Freakonomics post also provides a vivid [...]
Sun MicroSystems Director: Thou Shall Blog.
Via Penelope Trunk, Tim Bray’s Ten Reasons Why Blogging is Good For Your Career:
1. You have to get noticed to get promoted.
2. You have to get noticed to get hired.
3. It really impresses people when you say “Oh, I’ve written about that, just google for XXX and I’m on the top page” [Google "prediction markets"] [...]
Penelope Trunk’s two pieces of advice
- One goes to TradeSports trader Alex Forshaw (and Notre Dame collegian) —see her point #2.
- The other goes to Alex Costakis of HSX, who hates blogs, blogging, blogging software, bloggers, and the blogosphere.
Assessing Wiki News, the Wikipedia’s brother
Wikipedia is a free encyclopedia (which anyone can edit); Wiki News (which anyone can edit, too) resembles a free New York Times without the Eds and Op’Eds —in a microscopic version. There are about 6 news stories each day —twice more, sometimes. Wiki News is neither a success nor a complete failure –it’s in between.
Main [...]
Recent Comments