Monthly Archives: September, 2006
Internet gambling ban has passed.
The US Congress has approved the internet gambling ban bill. (Reuters, Wash Post). [Thanks to NY-based trader Steve Roman for the link.]
TEN CEO John Delaney has been feeding the gullible media with the concept that, because TradeSports / InTrade is a prediction exchange (not a bookmaker, or a casino), he keeps sleeping like a log, [...]
Map of TradeSports prices for US Senate election
Lance Fortnow has created a continuously updated map showing the probability of winning for each 2006 US Senate candidate, according to the last-traded prices on TradeSports. The map was created partially in response to the popular US election poll map Electoral-Vote.com.
Posted by David Pennock.
Some prediction market blogs…
NewsFutures Blog – Note the new location (Word Press, as opposed to Blogger). Our good Doctor EJSS has suddendly discovered the open-source blogging software movement. Finally. Never too late. Let’s practice what we preach, man.
Consensus Point Blog – David Perry (the Carpet Bagger) and Ken Kittlitz (the Canadian) – (They’re just business partners, if that’s [...]
Laureate of the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize?
Professor Tyler Cowen (of Marginal Revolution) finally discloses what everybody already knows: He’s a good economist and a popular blogger, but he is a lame predictor (just like most of us, probably). Let’s turn to prediction markets… well, there aren’t any for the 2006 Nobel Prize in economics, alas. So, let’s turn to bookmaker odds [...]
NYT: Dems hope to take US Senate – TradeSports-InTrade probabilities: 18.5%
Drudge Report headline: New York Times: SENATE IN PLAY; DEM CHANCE FOR CONTROL IMPROVES
TradeSports / InTrade odds for the Democrats (November 2006 elections):
U.S. Senate: 18.5% – Transactions: 16,763 – Stable graph since inception
U.S. House of Representatives: 45% – Transactions: 44,269 – Oscillating graph, lately
Humm… Either the NYT is overly optimistic for the Dems taking the [...]
Use of automated market maker in play-money prediction markets
I have built a comprehensive journal issue on the use of automated market maker (AMM) in play-money prediction markets, with testimonials from:
- Emile Servan-Schreiber (of NewsFutures);
- Adam Siegel (of Inkling)
- David Pennock (of Yahoo! Research & Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game)
- Robin Hanson (of GMU)
- Robert (of Subcard Limited’s 1st Tick)
- Hubertus Hofkirchner (of Red Monitor)
- [...]
HedgeStreet, play-money prediction exchange
Just kidding!
I have noticed today a “Mock Trader” sub-website, which lets users practice trading for free. They give you $2,500 bucks (in play money).
See also: BetFair Play For Fun – PredictionX -
Chris Masse
TradeSports-InTrade prediction markets on Bush approval ratings
Donald Luskin notes that the text of this contract has a glitch.
Probably, a TradeSports employee using a template has forgotten to delete an old text pertaining to US election prediction markets, while filling the “Rules” tab. (The webpage for the text of the contract is OK, though.)
What’s interesting: This contract institutes a blog (Real Clear [...]
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