Monthly Archives: September 2006

Internet gambling ban has passed.

Posted on September 30, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

The US Congress has approved the internet gambling ban bill. (Reuters, Wash Post). [Thanks to NY-based trader Steve Roman for the link.] TEN CEO John Delaney has been feeding the gullible media with the concept that, because TradeSports / InTrade … Continue reading →

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Map of TradeSports prices for US Senate election

Posted on September 29, 2006 by David Pennock

Lance Fortnow has created a continuously updated map showing the probability of winning for each 2006 US Senate candidate, according to the last-traded prices on TradeSports. The map was created partially in response to the popular US election poll map … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Some prediction market blogs…

Posted on September 28, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

NewsFutures Blog – Note the new location (Word Press, as opposed to Blogger). Our good Doctor EJSS has suddendly discovered the open-source blogging software movement. Finally. Never too late. Let’s practice what we preach, man. Consensus Point Blog – David … Continue reading →

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Laureate of the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize?

Posted on September 28, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Professor Tyler Cowen (of Marginal Revolution) finally discloses what everybody already knows: He’s a good economist and a popular blogger, but he is a lame predictor (just like most of us, probably). Let’s turn to prediction markets… well, there aren’t … Continue reading →

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NYT: Dems hope to take US Senate – TradeSports-InTrade probabilities: 18.5%

Posted on September 28, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Drudge Report headline: New York Times: SENATE IN PLAY; DEM CHANCE FOR CONTROL IMPROVES TradeSports / InTrade odds for the Democrats (November 2006 elections): U.S. Senate: 18.5% – Transactions: 16,763 – Stable graph since inception U.S. House of Representatives: 45% … Continue reading →

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Use of automated market maker in play-money prediction markets

Posted on September 27, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

I have built a comprehensive journal issue on the use of automated market maker (AMM) in play-money prediction markets, with testimonials from: – Emile Servan-Schreiber (of NewsFutures); – Adam Siegel (of Inkling) – David Pennock (of Yahoo! Research & Yahoo! … Continue reading →

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HedgeStreet, play-money prediction exchange

Posted on September 26, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Just kidding! I have noticed today a “Mock Trader” sub-website, which lets users practice trading for free. They give you $2,500 bucks (in play money). See also: BetFair Play For Fun – PredictionX – Chris Masse

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TradeSports-InTrade prediction markets on Bush approval ratings

Posted on September 26, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Donald Luskin notes that the text of this contract has a glitch. Probably, a TradeSports employee using a template has forgotten to delete an old text pertaining to US election prediction markets, while filling the “Rules” tab. (The webpage for … Continue reading →

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Welcome to Midas Oracle .ORG

Posted on September 26, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Midas Oracle is born. – The Midas Oracle Network – Midas Oracle .ORG = Prediction Markets For All – Midas Oracle .NET = Prediction Markets For Enterprises – Midas Oracle .COM = Prediction Markets For People – Chris F. Masse … Continue reading →

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