Polls-Based Forecasting Vs. Prediction Markets

Via AskMarkets&#8216- George Tziralis, The Daily Kos:

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Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Comments are now completely open on Midas Oracle.
  • Albert Einstein, Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board
  • Erratic –but not Stochastic– Charts
  • Barack Obama is the 44th US president.
  • We already have prediction markets in future tax rates. It’s called the municipal bond yield curve.
  • O’Reilly – Money-Tech Conference

What happens if you did an opinion poll, but instead of asking each individual how they intended to vote, you asked each individual what they thought the outcome of the election would be?

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Felix Salmon (from the RGE Monitor):

The really irrational thing would seem to be why we still place so much faith in opinion polls. Opinion opinion polls would be much more accurate.

Prediction Market Forum:

Global Imbalances – (Start of the Thread = &#8220-DISCUSSION&#8221-) — NewsFutures and RGE Monitor