Yearly Archives: 2008

James Surowiecki was in Texas (Michael Gibersons new land), yesterday, spinning educators (interested in technology) about prediction markets and collective intelligence.

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National Educational Computing Conference (&#8221-the premier forum in which to learn, exchange, and survey the field of educational technology&#8220-)

Classic stuff about the wisdom of crowds, but people enjoyed it.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).

Justin Wolfers = Open Researcher

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&#8220-Open&#8221- in the sense described in this document.

Consider this:

  1. The ungated version of a document is provided.
  2. The references are provided in a special file
  3. The pieces of evidence are stated in a special file.
  4. The raw data are provided in a special file &#8212-so that you can apply your own statistical method to them.

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Amazing.

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Now, contrast Justin Wolfers with that British professor (the little poodle of a British prediction exchange), who, when asked by me what he meant by &#8220-betting markets&#8221- (a quite vague term that covered different things at different times), replied to me, &#8220-I meant what I wrote&#8221-.

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