Yearly Archives: 2007

Conference: Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (Thursday, 1 November 2007)

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I have organized a conference on corporate prediction markets which may be of interest to Midas Oracle readers. It will take place on 1 November at the Kauffman Foundation in Kansas City. All of the details are available on the conference webpage (http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007/PredictionMarketsConference.html) with some background available on the conference flier (http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007/PredictionMarketsConference_Flier.html). Note that this is a free conference but you should get in touch with me if you plan on attending.

The preliminary schedule is listed below:

Schedule

8:30 Registration, Coffee, Opening Remarks

9:00 Lessons from Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets

Henry Berg, Microsoft

Discussant: Robin Hanson (George Mason Department of Economics)

Christina Ann LaComb, GE (The Imagination Market- abstract is free, text is gated)

Discussant: Marco Ottaviani (Kellogg School of Management, Management and Strategy)

10:45 Coffee Break

11:00 Lessons from Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets (cont)

Dawn Keller, Best Buy (Best Buy’s TAGTRADE Market)

Discussant: Paul Rhode (Department of Economics. Eller College of Management, University of Arizona)

Bo Cowgill, Google (Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work)

Discussant: Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth Department of Economics)

12:30 Lunch

Keynote address: Jim Lavoie, Co-Founder and CEO, Rite-Solutions

1:45 Lessons from Prediction Market Organizers and Operators

John Delaney, Founder and CEO, Intrade

David Perry, Co-Founder and President, Consensus Point

3:00 Break (refreshments)

3:15 The Legal Playing Field

Tom W. Bell, Chapman University School of Law

Discussant: Robert E. Litan (VP Research and Policy at the Kauffman Foundation, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Director of the AEI-Brookings Joint Center on Regulatory Studies)

4:00 General Discussion

6:30 Dinner

Location TBA

Previous blog posts by Koleman Strumpf:

  • Prediction Markets in the Classroom: Inkling Markets
  • Slides of presentations from Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (1 November), Kansas City
  • Summary of Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (1 November), Kansas City
  • Reminder: Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets Conference (1 November)
  • Copernican Principle: How To Predict the End of the World
  • Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.)
  • Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market?

General Electrics internal betting exchange: The Imagination Market

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The imagination market – by Christina Ann LaComb, Janet Arlie Barnett and Qimei Pan – 2007-03-10

Information markets [= prediction markets] are typically used as prediction tools, aggregating opinions about the likelihood of future events, or as preference indicators, identifying participants’ product preferences. However, the basic information market concept is more widely applicable. In our experiment, we utilized information markets [= prediction markets] within the domains of idea generation and group decisioning. Participants were allowed to propose ideas regarding potential technology research areas- these ideas were represented as securities on a virtual financial market. Participants were able to trade shares of technology ideas over the course of 3 weeks, resulting in the market identifying the “best” idea as the highest priced security. Our findings suggest that information markets [= prediction markets] for idea generation result in more ideas and more participants than traditional idea generation techniques- however, using markets to rank ideas may be no better than other methods of idea ranking. Additional benefits include providing immediate feedback, allowing visibility of all ideas to all contributors, and being a fun mechanism for consensus building.