Tag Archives: Zubin Jelveh

Economics blogger Zubin Jelveh got it right about the InTrade hedging thing.

Posted on October 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

“No Manipulation At InTrade“ Exactly. John Delaney said that that firm has been hedging on InTrade —a normal and beneficial activity on the other (larger and more liquid) financial markets. InTrade is not liquid enough to weather (quickly enough) the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Prediction Journalism | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, Finance, Hedging, InTrade, John Delaney, manipulations, market manipulations, Odd Numbers, political hedging, political prediction markets, Portofolio, prediction market analysis, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections, US politics, Zubin Jelveh | Leave a comment

Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president?

Posted on September 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

A quick link panorama. – #1. Is InTrade being manipulated? – Nate Silver shows that there are abrupt downward pressures on the Barack Obama event derivative, while we also see some abrupt upward pressures on the Hillary Clinton event derivative. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged arbitrage opportunities, arbitrages, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting markets, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Freakonomics, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Lance Fortnow, manipulation attempts, manipulations, market arbitrages, market manipulations, Nate Silver, polls, polls versus prediction markets, Portfolio, prediction markets, state correlations, Zubin Jelveh | 5 Comments

Justin Wolfers et al. showed us evidence last year that NBA referees tend to call less fouls on players of their own ethnicity –and that this could influence the outcome of games. They have now turned their attention to the ability of the betting markets to exploit this inefficiency.

Posted on May 1, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Zubin Jelveh -

Posted in Analysis (Data), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Betting, Economics | Tagged betting markets, Economics, inefficiencies, Justin Wolfers, National Basketball Association, prediction markets, Sports, spread betting, Zubin Jelveh | Leave a comment

Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work? — Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

Posted on March 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06 – VIDEO — Bo Cowgill on Google’s enterprise prediction markets — O’Reilly Money:Tech … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Business, Cases, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, active trader, advanced researcher, anonymous trading, architect, Bo Cowgill, CDA model for their markets, CEO, Chief Economist, computer-aided facility management systems, corporate applications, corporate prediction markets, crowd-wisdom applications, demographic networks, Doug Banks, economist, efficieny, Enterprise prediction market consultant, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Schmidt, Eric Zitwewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, gas prices, Google, Google Using Prediction, Google's enterprise prediction markets, Google's prediction exchange, Google's prediction markets, GPS, Hal Varian, high profile applications, Ilya Kirnos, implicit social networks, internal prediction markets, James Surowiecki, Jed Christiansen, Justin Wolfers, language networks, Linux, Michael Giberson, open-source software, Patri Friedman, Piaw Na, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Private, private prediction markets, real estate management group, Robin Hanson, Social Networks, social/professional networks, software engineers, software-and-consulting model, the New York Times, Tim Harford, Trader, ubiquitous communication technology, United States, USD, value applications, Zubin Jelveh | 18 Comments

Justin Wolfers is a wise man.

Posted on March 12, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Zubin Jelveh highlights this piece of wisdom (which I didn’t quote in my previous post): It seems to me that the truly important violations of the public trust are when the power we give our government officials is sold, … Continue reading →

Posted in Politics | Tagged Client 9, Eliot Spitzer, Emperors Club VIP, governor, Justin Wolfers, New York, prediction markets, resignation, Securities and Exchange Commission, sex, Zubin Jelveh | 5 Comments

Why Aren’t Real Estate Derivatives More Popular?

Posted on February 28, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Zubin Jelveh: 1) Bad Timing and Behavioral Finance 2) Owning a Home Is Already a Hedge 3) Not-Ready for Prime-time Read the whole thing, and expect Jason Ruspini’s comment, here or there.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Liquidity | Tagged housing derivatives, Jason Ruspini, real estate derivatives, Zubin Jelveh | 1 Comment

Iowa Electronic Markets’ Joyce Berg on video

Posted on February 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Zubin Jelveh

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Iowa Electronic Markets, Joyce Berg, prediction markets, Zubin Jelveh | Leave a comment

Can InTrade traders correct their own biases?

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Jed Christiansen talks back to Tyler Cowen: The biggest problem with people assessing the “success” of most prediction markets is that most people have problems understanding probabilities. If every [favorite] won, the market would actually be pretty inaccurate! Sports bettors … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, Barry Ritholtz, biases, David Leonhard, efficiency, Felix Salmon, Internet message board vowing, InTrade, Jed Christiansen, Justin Wolfers, lawyer, online-poker cheating scandal, poker player, prediction markets, Ravitch, sports bettors, Tyler Cowen, Zubin Jelveh | Leave a comment

The worst market crisis in 60 years

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

… says George Soros. The current financial crisis was precipitated by a bubble in the US housing market. In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred since the end of the second world war at intervals ranging from … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Prices & Probabilities, Psychology, The Global Economy | Tagged China, financial crisis, George Soros, India, InTrade, oil-producing countries, prediction markets, recession, Robert Scoble, United States, US economy, Zubin Jelveh | Leave a comment

THE GOOGLE MICRO-GEOGRAPHY PICTURE THAT WAS POSTED AND THEN DELETED BY THE PORTFOLIO MAGAZINE’S BLOGGER

Posted on January 8, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Zubin Jelveh’s post (which first version, which featured the picture, was retrieved thanks to… Google Reader ): The green shows people in Google‘s New York City office who are winning money and the red shows the losers [pic URL]. UPDATE … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Data), Cases, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Bo Cowgill, corporate prediction markets, Dartmouth College, DELETED BY THE PORTFOLIO MAGAZINE, economic analyst, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, internal prediction markets, Justin Wolfers, New York, Pennsylvania, prediction markets, private prediction markets, University of Pennsylvania, Zubin Jelveh | 1 Comment

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