Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results

No Gravatar

Superdelegate chicanery notwithstanding, Obama has won his party&#8217-s nomination, so my head-to-head contest between a major pollster (Zogby) and major prediction market (Intrade) will be coming to a close.

Unsurprising to those who know a little bit about the scholarship, economics, and/or track record of prediction markets, the traders of Intrade provided us much better data this election season than the respondents to the Zogby polls.

Standings
WinsLossesTiesPctContenderAvg Eve Prob
731159.5%Intrade71.3%
371140.5%Zogby40.7%

Schedule
ScoreDateStatePartyIntradeZogbyWinnerIntrade PctZogby Pct
7-3-116-MayINDemClinton2-way-tieClinton85%42%
6-3-116-MayNCDemObamaObamaObama90%50%
6-3-1022-AprPADemClintonClintonClinton82%47%
6-3-94-MarOHDemClinton2-way-tieClinton70%45%
5-3-94-MarTXDemObama2-way-tieClinton57%44%
5-2-95-FebNJRepMcCainMcCainMcCain96%52%
5-2-85-FebNJDemClinton2-way-tieClinton67%43%
4-2-85-FebNYRepMcCainMcCainMcCain98%53%
4-2-75-FebGADemObamaObamaObama96%48%
4-2-65-FebMODemObamaObamaObama63%47%
4-2-55-FebCARepMcCainRomneyMcCain56%40%
3-2-55-FebCADemObamaObamaClinton52%46%
3-2-429-JanFLRepMcCain2-way-tieMcCain51%33%
2-2-426-JanSCDemObamaObamaObama90%38%
2-2-319-JanSCRepMcCainMcCainMcCain56%29%
2-2-219-JanNVDemObamaClintonClinton54%42%
2-1-215-JanMIRepMcCain2-way tieRomney54%27%
2-0-28-JanNHDemObamaObamaClinton91%39%
2-0-18-JanNHRepMcCainMcCainMcCain82%34%
2-0-03-JanIADemObama3-way tieObama54%28%
1-0-03-JanIARepHuckabee2-way tieHuckabee53%28%

Lord willing, I will have another showdown season, but will most likely choose another pollster. Whereas Intrade listed contracts and probabilities for every state primary, Zogby only provided election eve updates for only 21 of the 87 held to date. Rasmussen stands out as a worthy pollster, but I would be happy with any candidate referrals from my readers as well.

Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.

Previous blog posts by Caveat Bettor:

  • Land-Ocean year-to-date temperatures 0.35 Celsius over baseline
  • Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!
  • Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
  • Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.
  • The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby

The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby

No Gravatar

If McCain wins SC, the GOP contest will be called for Intrade. If Thompson or Romney wins, that contest will be called for Zogby. If any other GOP candidate wins, the contest will end in a draw.

If Obama wins NV, the Dem context will be called for Intrade. If Edwards wins, that contest will be called for Zogby. If H.Clinton or another candidate wins, the contest will end in a draw.

Zogby does not have recent information posted about the GOP in NV nor the Dems in SC, so a meaningful contest with Intrade cannot be had. While it&#8217-s not a forfeiture by Zogby, at least it&#8217-s a tiebreaker for Intrade.

Election eve candidate probabilities posted at Caveat Bettor.

Intrade markets and Zogby polls agree in New Hampshire

No Gravatarthat Obama and McCain will be the winners tomorrow.

Previous blog posts by Caveat Bettor:

  • Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!
  • Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
  • Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.