Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results

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Superdelegate chicanery notwithstanding, Obama has won his party&#8217-s nomination, so my head-to-head contest between a major pollster (Zogby) and major prediction market (Intrade) will be coming to a close.

Unsurprising to those who know a little bit about the scholarship, economics, and/or track record of prediction markets, the traders of Intrade provided us much better data this election season than the respondents to the Zogby polls.

Standings
Wins Losses Ties Pct Contender Avg Eve Prob
7 3 11 59.5% Intrade 71.3%
3 7 11 40.5% Zogby 40.7%

Schedule
Score Date State Party Intrade Zogby Winner Intrade Pct Zogby Pct
7-3-11 6-May IN Dem Clinton 2-way-tie Clinton 85% 42%
6-3-11 6-May NC Dem Obama Obama Obama 90% 50%
6-3-10 22-Apr PA Dem Clinton Clinton Clinton 82% 47%
6-3-9 4-Mar OH Dem Clinton 2-way-tie Clinton 70% 45%
5-3-9 4-Mar TX Dem Obama 2-way-tie Clinton 57% 44%
5-2-9 5-Feb NJ Rep McCain McCain McCain 96% 52%
5-2-8 5-Feb NJ Dem Clinton 2-way-tie Clinton 67% 43%
4-2-8 5-Feb NY Rep McCain McCain McCain 98% 53%
4-2-7 5-Feb GA Dem Obama Obama Obama 96% 48%
4-2-6 5-Feb MO Dem Obama Obama Obama 63% 47%
4-2-5 5-Feb CA Rep McCain Romney McCain 56% 40%
3-2-5 5-Feb CA Dem Obama Obama Clinton 52% 46%
3-2-4 29-Jan FL Rep McCain 2-way-tie McCain 51% 33%
2-2-4 26-Jan SC Dem Obama Obama Obama 90% 38%
2-2-3 19-Jan SC Rep McCain McCain McCain 56% 29%
2-2-2 19-Jan NV Dem Obama Clinton Clinton 54% 42%
2-1-2 15-Jan MI Rep McCain 2-way tie Romney 54% 27%
2-0-2 8-Jan NH Dem Obama Obama Clinton 91% 39%
2-0-1 8-Jan NH Rep McCain McCain McCain 82% 34%
2-0-0 3-Jan IA Dem Obama 3-way tie Obama 54% 28%
1-0-0 3-Jan IA Rep Huckabee 2-way tie Huckabee 53% 28%

Lord willing, I will have another showdown season, but will most likely choose another pollster. Whereas Intrade listed contracts and probabilities for every state primary, Zogby only provided election eve updates for only 21 of the 87 held to date. Rasmussen stands out as a worthy pollster, but I would be happy with any candidate referrals from my readers as well.

Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.

Previous blog posts by Caveat Bettor:

  • Land-Ocean year-to-date temperatures 0.35 Celsius over baseline
  • Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!
  • Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
  • Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.
  • The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby

The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby

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If McCain wins SC, the GOP contest will be called for Intrade. If Thompson or Romney wins, that contest will be called for Zogby. If any other GOP candidate wins, the contest will end in a draw.

If Obama wins NV, the Dem context will be called for Intrade. If Edwards wins, that contest will be called for Zogby. If H.Clinton or another candidate wins, the contest will end in a draw.

Zogby does not have recent information posted about the GOP in NV nor the Dems in SC, so a meaningful contest with Intrade cannot be had. While it&#8217-s not a forfeiture by Zogby, at least it&#8217-s a tiebreaker for Intrade.

Election eve candidate probabilities posted at Caveat Bettor.

Intrade markets and Zogby polls agree in New Hampshire

No Gravatarthat Obama and McCain will be the winners tomorrow.

Previous blog posts by Caveat Bettor:

  • Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!
  • Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
  • Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.