Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: World Trade Organization

Max Keiser’s politics is controversial. But, as a journalist, he is a genius. Market-based probabilistic predictions (whether it’s play money or real money) are now part of his daily punditry toolbox.

Max Keiser looks at what the prediction markets are predicting the outcome will be at the Geneva talks on the Doha Round.
Here’s the link to the HubDub prediction market which Max Keiser plugs in this video segment.
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Lawsuit aiming at compelling the office of the United States trade representative to produce a copy of its compensation settlement with the European Union over the United States’ withdrawal of gambling services from the General Agreement on Trade in Services.

“National Security” is the reason given for the cover up.
The Center for Independent Media and Public Citizen are suing their pants off.
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Details on how the Federal Reserve will TRY to crash real-money prediction exchanges InTrade-TradeSports and MatchBook

Via Betting Market, the Federal Reserve:

Louise L. Roseman, Director, Division of Reserve Bank Operations and Payment Systems
Internet gambling
Before the Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, Trade, and Technology, Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives
April 2, 2008
Chairman Gutierrez, Ranking Member Paul, and members of the Subcommittee, I am pleased to appear before you [...]

Christmas gift to Antigua-Barbuda = $21 million worth of American intellectual property rights

Via Daniel Horowitz, The New York Times.
[...] Antigua and Barbuda had claimed damages of $3.44 billion a year. That makes the relatively small amount awarded Friday, $21 million, something of a setback for Antigua, which had been struggling to preserve its gambling industry. The United States argued that its behavior had caused $500,000 damage. Yet [...]

Finally, someone tells the libertarian truth on the US ban against Internet betting and gambling.

Reason Magazine blog (who else?):
It’s too bad Europe, Japan, and Canada caved. Here’s hoping little Antigua stays plucky.
A few observations:
First, and most obviously, the U.S. government is so hellbent on policing the online habits of its citizens, it’s willing to pay what will likely be tens of billions of dollars of money in trade reparations—taken [...]

The European Commission dealt a blow to European online gaming companies Monday when it accepted a U.S. offer of openings in other sectors as compensation for closing the U.S. gambling market to foreign firms.

Reuters
Bloomberg
Associated Press
NEXT: Finally, someone tells the libertarian truth on the US ban against Internet betting and gambling.

Remote Gambling Association vs. Prediction Market Industry Association

The Remote Gambling Association (co-lead by lawful and ethical industry player BetFair-TradeFair) will do much more to help legalizing internet gambling and betting (and, hence, prediction exchanges, betting exchanges and prediction markets) in the U.S. than the Prediction Market Industry Association (lead by illegal operator InTrade-TradeSports).
Remote Gambling Association – PDF file:
European Union Commissioner Mandelson Urged [...]

US Online Gambling: Don’t bet on it.

One or two traders were caught out Friday, following a late afternoon surge in the share price of both Sportingbet and PartyGaming. Sportingbet shares were up 15.9% at 43 3/4p whilst PartyGaming climbed 9.5% to 26p.
Two factors may have been responsible for the rise; firstly, the fact that the tiny Caribbean resort may be about [...]

Congressman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) wants Congress to overturn the Unlawful Internet Gambling and Enforcement Act (UIGEA) –a legislative decision that’s twice incurred the formal wrath of the World Trade Organization.

CNET News – MP3 file
Previous: Unlawful Internet Gambling and Enforcement Act (UIGEA)

Marketplace Radio says: Don’t bet on Internet gambling ban’s reversal.

Marketplace ran a radio news story on the Internet Gambling Regulation and Enforcement Act:
JOHN DIMSDALE: Opponents of the ban on Internet gambling say its none of the government’s business what Americans do with their own money in their own homes. Massachusetts Democrat Barney Frank is the sponsor of the Internet Gambling Regulation and Enforcement [...]

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