Tag Archives: White House

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file): July 4th 2008 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st Street NW Washington, DC 20581 U.S.A. Attention: Office of the Secretariat RE: “Concept Release … Continue reading

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LET’S REVISIT HISTORY: In May 2007, Harvard professor of economics Kenneth Rogoff laughed in Paul Wolfowitz’s face.

BACKGROUND INFO: Kenneth Rogoff is a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution and professor of economics at Harvard University. – May 2007′s Blog Post: INSIDER TRADING: World Bank employees speculating on the Paul Wolfowitz event derivatives at InTrade-TradeSports?? – - … Continue reading

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Iraq War = “not necessary”, “a serious strategic blunder” — US News Media = “complicit enablers” in the manipulation of the public (“the propaganda campaign”) — George W. Bush turned away “from candor and honesty when those qualities were most needed.”

- Check what he wrote on Katrina and on Condoleeza Rice. – And, now, the clincher: [Scott McClellan] does not exempt himself from failings — “I fell far short of living up to the kind of public servant I wanted … Continue reading

Posted in Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Politics, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Michael Bloomberg: I’m not running… but, beware, I am a King maker.

- Michael Bloomberg: I listened carefully to those who encouraged me to run, but I am not — and will not be — a candidate for president. [...] If a candidate takes an independent, nonpartisan approach — and embraces practical … Continue reading

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Taxes are the largest class of risk people don’t hedge. Our Jason Ruspini (allied with InTrade) wants to change that.

Jason Ruspini, interviewed by Bloomberg: Taxes “are the largest class of risk people don’t hedge,” said Jason Ruspini, a New York hedge fund analyst who established the market, which began trading last week. “Hopefully this year, with this election, there … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

How will the prediction markets respond?

Ireland’s largest bookmaker Paddy Power is already paying out on Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination for the race to the White House. They decided yesterday to pay out 50000 Euros to punters who had backed him at odds … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Not since 1928 has there been a US presidential election with neither a sitting president or vice president running.

CNBC Streaming Video: Trading The Election The start of the biggest election in 80 years begins Thursday. Not since 1928 has there been an election with neither a sitting president or vice president running. The polls have the leading candidates … Continue reading

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Prediction market infiltrations in the media – US vs. UK

Folks, I want to tackle this important issue in this blog post. But first, I will excerpt two news articles from The Economist. The first one was written by their American correspondence, and the second one was written by their … Continue reading

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InTrade-TradeSports is still plagued by the North Korea Missile scandal.

Any good journalist writing up a piece on InTrade or interviewing John Delaney does mention the North Korea Missile scandal. — Bet on It! – (page two – page three + a crappy listing of exchanges) – by Spectrum’s Steven … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Once again, resignation prediction markets failed to the task.

US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales resigns. More. (Good riddance, by the way.) Doug Mills / The New York Times — Once again, Chris Masse was right on the money: [...] Just like the Olympic City prediction markets, the resignation prediction … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments