Tag Archives: war

Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

Posted on June 1, 2009 by Ryan

Hubdubâ€™s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how theyâ€™re likely … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Barack Obama, detroit red wings, hurricane season, la lakers, los angeles lakers, National Basketball Association, National Hockey League, NBA, NHL, North Korea, nuclear tests, orlando magic, pittsburgh penguins, playoffs, Sonia Sotomayor, south korea, Supreme Court, war | Leave a comment

P.T. Barnum said, â€œAll publicity is good publicityâ€. Is that true?

Posted on April 27, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Bryan Caplan: If you want to get all the publicity you deserve, make sure you’re friendly with the enemies of your enemies. Almost all publicity can be transformed into good publicity, but you can’t do it alone. I‘ll try to … Continue reading →

Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Psychology | Tagged all publicity, bad publicity, good publicity, Internet Marketing, marketing, P.T. Barnum, Psychology, publicity, war | 2 Comments

What I mean by “advanced” and “retarded”

Posted on July 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- An event is “advanced” when it is before the others on the timeline. – An event is “retarded” when it is after the others on the timeline. – - I use the term “advanced, primary indicator” to talk about … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Miscellaneous, Psychology, Science | Tagged advanced, bombing, bombs, Central Intelligence Agency, chief, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, InTrade trader, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, meta forecasting tools, Mossad, Pentagon, physics, prediction markets, retarded, Says Any Attack, strikes, time, U.S. military, United States, USD, war | Leave a comment

Clueless and retarded InTrade traders (“the sheep”) can’t take “no” for an answer. — Short sellers (“the wolves”) will BBQ them.

Posted on July 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Still trading at 30% this Thursday morning. – - – US Military Chief Says Any Attack on Iran Would be Destabilizing. – Israel has signaled the U.S. and other allies that air operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are not … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged bombing, bombs, chief, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, meta forecasting tools, prediction markets, Says Any Attack, strikes, U.S. military, United States, USD, war | 3 Comments

50%

Posted on July 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged bombing, bombs, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Iran, Israel, prediction markets, strikes, war | Leave a comment

We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we’re afraid that your “Israel-bombs-Iran-in-2008″ event derivatives are now completely… WORTHLESS —unless you’re a short seller.

Posted on July 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Israel has signaled the U.S. and other allies that air operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are not imminent. – - Explainer On Prediction Markets Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged bombing, bombs, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, meta forecasting tools, prediction markets, strikes, United States, USD, war, WORTHLESS | Leave a comment

One word is missing (“Israel”), and the event derivative market is useless.

Posted on June 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The USA or the UN will attack Iran before winter, 2008 Â© NewsFutures

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged bombings, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, United Nations, United States, war | Leave a comment

The “Israel bombs Iran” event derivative at InTrade should go further than the end of December 2008 to be fully useful.

Posted on June 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

They need to create contracts for 2009 —since Barack Obama takes office in January 2009, and since the timeframe given by that Israeli spy covers 2008 S2 and 2009 S1. See my post on Midas Oracle .COM for more on … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Barack Obama, bombs. bombins, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, spy, strikes, war | Leave a comment

Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts

Posted on June 28, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

I wonder if the following is a joke: Events these past few weeks make an airstrike on Iran more likely. The Intrade contract reinforces this view. While the probability remains moderate at 32%, the chart shows a market that is … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, Humor, InTrade, Iran, Iran bombings, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, prediction markets, war | 8 Comments

After Iraq, the neo-cons’ next target is Iran.

Posted on June 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- I have posted the John Bolton video on Midas Oracle .COM. -

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged InTrade, Iran, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, John Bolton, prediction markets, war | Leave a comment