Tag Archives: value of the prediction markets
Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets — REDUX
A little explainer on my previous post, as I got some feedback on it.
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#1. Yes, the measure of the usefulness of an idea or theory is the number and the quality of web links it receives.
- Google PageRank (the engine powering the world’s #1 media) organizes the world’s information according to how many links go [...]
Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets
Justin Wolfers:
Prediction markets can yield valuable insight into the dynamics of political campaigns, a conclusion we’ve drawn from years of intensive study and research. We’ve even proselytized about the value of these markets, extolling their ability to yield sharper insights than pundits or polls. [...]
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If this statement were true,
Justin Wolfers’ columns at the WSJ would [...]
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators
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Also tagged bet markets, betting markets, event derivative markets, information value assessment, Justin Wolfers, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Wall Street Journal, WSJ
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