Tag Archives: usefulness

Paul Hewitt on the usefulness of the prediction markets — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on August 2, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: I don’t think there is any question that the usefulness of prediction markets has been exaggerated. We don’t hear much from James Surowiecki anymore. So a few of those polled probably indicated that he doesn’t exaggerate the usefulness … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | Leave a comment

Have Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki been exaggerating the usefulness of the prediction markets? — [SURVEY RESULT]

Posted on July 28, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Here’s the result of the Kauffman Foundation poll: – UPDATE: Here’s an example (among many) of the grave problems with prediction markets, which are unreported by the media. – PDF document. – - – - – - – - – … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, The Global Economy | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | 1 Comment

That’s a tough one… How would you have answered? — [POLL]

Posted on July 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

UPDATE: The poll result.

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, usefulness | Leave a comment

Are prediction markets useful?

Posted on November 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

According to Alan Abramowitz, John Tierney has been “greatly exaggerating the accuracy of the betting markets.” “They follow the polls. Thatâ€™s it.” – - My comment to Alan Abramowitz and John Tierney: “They follow the polls. Thatâ€™s it.” Yes, they … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged 2008 Democratic primary, 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, HubDub, InTrade, NewsFutures, prediction markets, social utility, US politics, usefulness, utility | 3 Comments

Don’t pump up the features of the prediction markets —instead, put the emphasis on their benefits.

Posted on November 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

John Tierney and Jed Christiansen are making the same mistake: they think that people and experts should be impressed by the information aggregation functionality of the prediction markets. They are not —people still prefer reading Nate Silver and Electoral-Vote.com over … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, benefits, features, prediction markets, usefulness, utility | 6 Comments