I’-ve spotted an interesting comment from Canadian trader Sacha Peter on the TradeSports forum:
This will be an interesting contract. Essentially, will Bush recess appoint him? I can’-t see him getting past the senate confirmation process.
I lost a few bucks (literally, it wasn’-t huge) in the previous confirmation debacle, so the way they worded this contract is very unambiguous and Tradesports appears to have learned one lesson.
So here’-s the contract statement:
This contract will expire at 100 if John Bolton is the US Ambassador to the United Nations at 11:59:59pm on the date specified in the contract.
This includes (but is not limited to) confirmation by the US Senate or a recess appointment by the President.
The contract will expire at 0 if John Bolton is not the US Ambassador to the United Nations at 11:59:59pm on the date specified in the contract.
This includes (but is not limited to) withdrawal of the nomination by the President, withdrawal by John Bolton himself, failure to be confirmed by the US Senate or appoinment to an “-acting UN Ambassador”- role under the Vancacies Reform Act.
Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.9 Unforeseen Circumstances.
The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.
This entry is a follow-up on my previous blog post.
I’-m curious to see who’-s going to be on the “-yes”- side of this brand-new contract. From what I heard yesterday on NBC Nightly News, this neo-con is toasted. But maybe I don’-t know the full story.
Addendum (November 15): Sacha Peter posted a comment…-
Well, at least one person out there is currently willing to lay you 999:1 odds that he will get confirmed and he’s willing to stick his neck out to the tune of $10 against your $9,990 for it. It’s too bad even if you win you’ll still have to shell out $30 in commissions and $100 in expiration fees to collect your $10 in winnings. What a deal!