Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: United Nations

ClimateGate: How leftist scientists cooked the data on climate change to scare the hell out of people – [VIDEO]

Here’s the report the US Senator is talking about in this video.

One word is missing (“Israel”), and the event derivative market is useless.

The USA or the UN will attack Iran before winter, 2008

© NewsFutures

HOW THE HELL CAN YOU TRUST A PREDICTION EXCHANGE THAT CAN’T SPELL CORRECTLY???

6 DAYS LATER, SAME TYPO:

[*] There are 3 “C”s actually. Those Irish bozos are not even able to spell it correctly. –> UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). Look at the logo, below.

UPDATE: They have corrected the spelling on Saturday, December 15, 2007.
Previously: The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for [...]

The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for floating event derivatives on global warming.

The London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), located at the center of London (nearby the Waterloo Bridge), chose not to partner with BetFair-TradeFair, the world’s #1 prediction exchange (betting exchange), located west of London (near the Hammersmith Bridge). Instead, the CEP went with Ireland-based InTrade —North America’s illegal market leader, and the [...]

InTrade’s global warming prediction markets are more socially interesting than BetFair’s ones.

InTrade has just opened (and not publicized yet on their site feed) a set of global warming prediction markets —more exactly, event derivative markets on whether the world’s biggest national governments will soon agree to reduce CO2 emissions under the UNFCCC treaty. They are, in my view, more interesting than the pitiful BetFair’s prediction markets [...]

Forget Iran, let’s move on?

Neocon John Bolton (former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations) didn’t like the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate.
Dynamic Chart:

Static Chart:

The Collateral Damages of Growing BioFuel

Two things I heard this morning on the radio:

Now, half of the corn cultivated in the US is for biofuel. Abroad, we see the same trend: more and more crops end up in gas tanks. The result of that is that is that the price of food has gone up for the Earth’s poors. The [...]

Former Vice President Al Gore and the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.

Credit: Paramount Pictures Classics

Congrats to InTrade and NewsFutures, which predicted a victory for Al Gore, in a weak way, though.

The Bet2Give real-money betting exchange could facilitate the sponsoring of socially valuable prediction markets by foundations and think tanks.

Could Emile Servan-Schreiber push his Bet2Give concept a bit further?
I’m thinking of something, having in mind the LongBets experiment. Bet2Give lets traders select the charity of their choice. Good. But can’t we go further than that? Why not letting some people (like Robin Hanson and his gullible fanboys like Chris Hibbert ) create [...]

Can Prediction Markets Help Eliminate Poverty?

In the 19th century, classical liberal thinkers such as William Graham Sumner were clear about the institutions that had produced the amazing increases in the standard of living which were taking place at the time:
“Some men have been found to denounce and deride the modern system – what they call the capitalist system. The [...]

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