Tyler Cowen, proven wrong on PBS? – [VIDEO]

Brian Caplan tweeted that the GMU prof was wrong and the MIT prof was right. Is that your personal view? I am not impressed by the futuristic MIT gadgets, as they won’-t necessary correspond to people’-s needs. Hence, I don’-t buy their argument that the real problem is not being capable of “-keeping up”- with the pace of technology. We don’-t care about technology we don’-t need.

Watch the full episode. See more PBS NewsHour.

[Download this post to watch the video, if your feed reader does not show it to you.]

Tyler Cowens The Great Stagnation – [REVIEW]

Jason Ruspini:

I don’t think Cowen failed to appreciate these points, but explaining the rate-of-change in productivity, mean income, asset returns, etc. in terms of a technological slowdown is still mainly a “story” that we are telling ourselves. We could also tell a story in terms of demographic structure and population growth. Both narratives are plausible, but difficult to show rigorously. Regardless of how we try to explain what has happened, it is uncontroversial that it is becoming harder to retire, and that fact has a large bearing on quality of life. It is difficult to quantify the gains from radio to television to color TV to Youtube on IPhone (where one might take pleasure in watching cigarette commercials from the ’60s and ’70s), but having to work or not seems a lot more straightforward, and stagnation on that front is more tangible. Of course, you will probably live longer in retirement, but can you afford that longevity? That is the more concrete issue here.

Got that hardcover book on my desk, thanks to Steve Roman. Its out in paperback form, today -for small people like you (the readers), who are not famous on the Web, and hence dont get all the free gigs that big bloggers get for free. (((I pity you.)))

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Lawsuit aiming at compelling the office of the United States trade representative to produce a copy of its compensation settlement with the European Union over the United States’ withdrawal of gambling services from the General Agreement on Trade in Services.
  • Iraq War = “not necessary”, “a serious strategic blunder” — US News Media = “complicit enablers” in the manipulation of the public (“the propaganda campaign”) — George W. Bush turned away “from candor and honesty when those qualities were most needed.”
  • JASON RUSPINI’S CROCKERY: The Brain states forcefully that they are not “event futures”, but “binary options”. Still, as soon as he premieres prediction markets on tax rates at InTrade, he calls them “tax futures” —of course.
  • Tasmania’s Prime Minister who licenced BetFair Australia departs “abruptly”.
  • Do not pay any attention to Jason Ruspini’s legal ramblings on Midas Oracle. — Do monitor Jason Ruspini’s portfolio of event derivatives, instead.
  • Meet Tom W. Bell, the man who knows the legal difference between “excluded commodities” and “exempt commodities”, and the legal difference between “contracts” and “notes” —but still can’t get himself a gravatar.
  • WEB EXCLUSIVE: What Vernon Smith told the CFTC about the social utility of the event derivative markets —the so-called “prediction markets”

??? charity-driven prediction markets OR social issue prediction markets ???

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BOTH.

But, contrary to what Lucy Berholtz thinks, the former will go further than the latter —-in my view.

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My thoughts about the Financial Times article on Bet2Give:

  1. I have said from day one that it’-s a great idea.
  2. This is a “-unique”- concept…- until InTrade-TradeSports, Betdaq and BetFair-TradeSports decide to create a charity wallet for their traders. Complex, sure, but that might come, one day.
  3. I have the highest esteem for Lucy Berholtz, generally, but I’-m with Emile Servan-Schreiber on the idea that Bet2Give is not a simple marketing trick. All the money but a small percentage goes to the traders’- selected foundations. If all US betting were organized that way, that would mean a huge windfall for US foundations.
  4. Tyler Cowen makes sense.
  5. As for LongBets, it’-s a failed experiment in my judgment. Too many one-sided “-predictions”- for only a fistful of agreed “-bets”-.

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