Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Thomas Rietz

Professor Thomas Rietz (Iowa Electronic Markets) was so wrong on the usefulness of prediction markets about the 2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago.

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 2, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Chicago Olympic Market Might Have Value, Says Reitz (Chicago Tribune, April 17)
A credible source of information about Chicago’s chances of hosting the 2016 Olympics would have value, says columnist Bill Barnhart. Local real estate developers, hotel operators, employment agencies, vendors of products and services to major events and others have a direct stake in whether [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Combinatorial Prediction Markets — David Pennock Edition

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 19, 2009 — Leave a Comment

ACM:
[...] Prediction markets are gaining interest because the Internet allows greater worldwide access to them, as well as to the ever-increasing amount of data stored on any topic imaginable (which theoretically allows participants to make more informed predictions, individually and in aggregate). These factors, plus the enormous amount of computing power that will make it [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs | Also tagged , , , , , ,

CNBC on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 4, 2008 — Leave a Comment

CNBC = Entertainment
- InTrade CEO John Delaney is 15 minutes in.
- Tom Rietz of Iowa Electronic Markets is 1 minute in. – [PAY ATTENTION TO HOW PROF TOM RIETZ EXPRESSES PRICES AS PROBABILITIES.]

Tip via John Delaney Jason Ruspini.
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Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , ,

2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago: Prediction Markets, anyone??

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 18, 2007 — 1 Comment

Next: Chicago won’t have the Olympics in 2016.
Next: The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.
Next: Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market.
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Why Chicago Tribune’s Bill Barnhart, Iowa Electronic Markets’ Thomas Rietz, University of Chicago Law School’s [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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