MIDAS ORACLE: 1,600 daily readers (600 visitors on the Web + 1,000 feed subscribers)
THIRD WORKSHOP: 40 people in the room. – [Psstt… All the links to the presented papers… here.]
Ratio: 40 to 1.
There are 40 times more people on Midas Oracle than in that Chicago conference room.
TAKEAWAY: If your goal as a researcher is truly to get your ideas out, then come blogging with us on Midas Oracle.
Live Steam Audio of the Third WorkShop on Prediction Markets?
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
- THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
- Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
- Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
- Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
- If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
- 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
July 9th, 2008
1:25pm Opening Remarks
1:30 – 2:20pm: Session 1: Practical Applications and Experiences
Speaker: Emile Servan-Schreiber (1:30-1:45pm)
- Keys to successful implementation of an internal corporate prediction market (Emile Servan-Schreiber)
Speaker: Todd Henderson (1:45-2:05pm)
- Prediction Markets for Corporate Governance (Michael Abramowicz and Todd Henderson)
- Predicting Crime (Todd Henderson, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz)
Discussion (2:05pm – 2:15pm)
2:20pm-3:10pm Session 2: Security Design and Theory
Speaker: Hajime Mizuyama (2:15 pm —- 2:30pm)
- Intra-Firm Prediction Market System Using VIPS for Demand Forecasting (Hajime Mizuyama)
Speaker: Stefan Stathel (2:30 pm –-2:45pm)
- Information Efficiency and Liquidity in Information Markets: A market-maker based approach (Stefan Stathel, Clemens van Dinther, and Stefan Luckner)
Speaker: Eiichero Kazumori (2:45 pm —- 3:00pm)
- A Strategic Theory of Markets (Eiichiro Kazumori)
3:30-4:25pm: Session 3: Event Detection
Speaker: Todd Kuethe (3:30 – 3:45pm)
- Identifying “-Tipping Points”- in US Presidential Campaigns: Evidence from Prediction Market Prices 1992-2004 (Todd H. Kuethe, David Ubilava, Benoit Delbecq, and Kenneth A. Foster)
Speaker: George Tziralis (3:45pm – 4:00pm)
- Detecting Important Events using Prediction Markets, Text Mining, and Volatility Modeling (George Tziralis and Panos Ipeirotis)
Speaker: Abe Othman (4:00pm-4:15pm)
- Time Inconsistency and Uncertainty Aversion in Information Markets (Ivan Corwin and Abe Othman)
Session 4: Comparison to Alternatives (4:25-4:55pm)
Speaker: Andreas Graefe (4:25-4:45pm)
- Can you beat the market? Accuracy of Individual and Group Post-Prediction Market Judgments (Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong)
- Group Decision Making – Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi, and Prediction Markets Compared (Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong)
Previous blog posts by Chris “GadFly” Masse:
- PROF TOM W. BELL, PLEASE, DO SKIP THE PAGAN CELEBRATIONS, AND, PLEASE, DO RETURN TO YOUR DESK TO FINISH THE DRAFT OF YOUR COMMENT TO THE CFTC. THANKS FOR YOUR PRAGMATIC (NOT ‘ETHEREAL’) CONTRIBUTION TO “THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY”. (There is a hidden slam to Robin Hanson in this title. I wonder whether people will get the joke.)
- The CFTC is going to close the comments in 3 days. We have 3 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
- TOM W. BELL: “Thanks, Chris. Thanks, too, for being such an effective gadfly. I might well have blown off the whole exercise if you had not kept blogging about how you were awaiting my comment!”
- What to think of HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC
- The freshest comments sent to the CFTC
- “To someone like me who trades professionally and also ran for Congress a few years back, InTrade is a marriage made in heaven.”
- HOW TO DESTROY INTRADE, TRADESPORTS AND BETFAIR: a betting application for FaceBook