Tag Archives: swine flu
Were prediction markets useless during the H1N1 breakout?
Lance Fortnow:
Might this be an instance where prediction markets greatly out-performed the experts? In short, no. There were relevant markets but two big problems:
No one thought to create a market for the number of flu cases over a couple of thousand.
Prediction markets require a verifiable outcome so they were based on CDC confirmed cases. But [...]
What’s next for the Swine Flu (H1N1) alert level: 4 or 6?
Whats next for the Swine Flu alert level: 4 or 6?
Making money on the spreading (or taming) of H1N1
For info, see our good friend “Caveat Bettor”, which is the pseudonym of a savvy New York-based financial expert —who made no mystery of his real identity to moi (I won’t tell).
See also “Wiser Than The Crowd”, which is probably the pseudonym of a very smart financial expert, financial entrepreneur and prolific book author —with [...]
Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week
Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
Politics
Undoubtedly the biggest news coming out of Washington last week was the retirement [...]
Vertical Media vs. Prediction Markets vs. Mass Media
Let’s rank institutions according to who has dealt first with the swine flu:
Vertical media and local media — starting Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Mass media, news aggregators, and user-created prediction markets (a la HubDub) — starting Friday, April 24, 2009
Centrally managed prediction markets (a la InTrade) — starting Monday, April 27, 2009
External Link: Google News Timeline
Previously: [...]
Google users are digging around to get the probability of a Swine Flu pandemy.
-
Interestingly, the results are very different with “swine flu predictions”. Predictify is above HubDub in both cases, you’ll notice.
-
External Links: – Google Trends – Google Insights for Search
Previously: Swine Flu Prediction Markets
Swine Flu Prediction Markets
will there be confirmed cases of swine flu on every continent by july 1?
-
SWINE FLU 2009: How many states will report cases of Swine flu by the end of May?
-
Will the Mexican/U.S. swine flu (A/H1N1) grow into a pandemic in 2009 as feared?
-
Will we see a global influenza pandemic in 2009?
Recent Comments