Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: surveys

So much for Prof Panos and his data religion

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 5, 2009 — Leave a Comment

People answer bullshit when polled by Prof Panos and other stats collectors.

Posted in Analysis (Data), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology | Also tagged , , ,

Prediction markets feed on facts and expertise.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 15, 2009 — 1 Comment

Via Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock of Odd Head and YooPick, the dear honorable Duncan Watts:
In part because of disappointing findings such as this, an increasingly popular substitute for expert opinions are so-called “prediction markets,” in which individuals buy and sell contracts on various outcomes, such as football game point spreads or presidential elections. The [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Predictify is about building track records of human predictors.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 10, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Robert Scoble interviews their CTO.
Video
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Predictify is not a prediction exchange. We think prediction markets are superior to polls and surveys, don’t we?
With Predictify, the mechanism delivering the collective verdict is simplistic: it’s a poll —with possibility to get down to each individual answer.
Their conversation is very interesting, nevertheless —in great part due to [...]

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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