Tag Archives: South Carolina

Regulated U.S. election markets might not be so hard.

Posted on August 3, 2008 by Jason Ruspini

Based on the arguments Hedgestreet presented in its response to the CFTC on event markets, the exchange has a fairly strong justification to self-certify and begin trading election futures, soon. While most event markets trade as binary options, and the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged America, CFTC, Chicago Mercantile Echange, CME Group, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Federal Reserve System, HedgeStreet, law preemption, laws, political prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, South Carolina, United States, United States Of America, USA | 18 Comments

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Posted on July 5, 2008 by Jason Ruspini

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it. Given … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics, Regulations | Tagged arbitrator, Brookings Institution Press, candidate, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre, Congress, Democratic president, Department of the Treasury, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, Eriz Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, General, insurance contracts, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, oil prices, particular product, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, President, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, S&P 500, Securities and Exchange Commission, South Carolina, the candidate, Trader, United States, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USD, Washington D.C. | Leave a comment

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

Posted on June 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations | Tagged 202.418.5521, 202.418.5578, AEI-Brookings Joint Center, American Enterprise Institute, bet markets, betting markets, binary options, Bruce Fekrat, by-products, Capper, catastrophe single event insurance option contracts, CFTC, Chicago Board Of Trade, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, commodity options, commodity options contracts, Congress, cottonseed oil, crude oil, D.C., David A. Stawick, definitions, Director, Division of Market Oversight, Eric W. Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, governor, Hal R. Varian, House Committee on Agriculture, House-Senate Conference Committee, InTrade, Iraq, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, legalization, livestock products, Michael Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, natural gas, office, particular candidate for political office, particular presidential candidate, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Wolfowitz, peanut oil, Porter, prediction markets, predictive tools, producer, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Robert W. Hahn, Secretary, Senate, Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, South Carolina, soybean oil, Special Counsel, specific candidate, specific farmer, the New York Times, The University of Iowa, Three Lafayette Centre, Tom W. Bell, Trader, United States, United States Of America, University of Iowa Departments of Accounting and Economics, University's College of Business Administration, USD, Valencia, Vernon Smith, Washington, West Coast, young economist | 24 Comments

Barack Obama’s victory in South Carolina won’t stop the Clintons.

Posted on January 28, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Dixit InTrade. — — South Carolina The Barack Obama event derivative was expired to 100. Source: InTrade

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Politics, prediction markets, South Carolina, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections | Leave a comment

South Carolina showdown: Barack Obama vs. Hillary Clinton

Posted on January 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

South Carolina primary (Democrats) — @ InTrade

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton South Carolina, Hillary Clinton, Politics, South Carolina, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections | Leave a comment

NIALL O’CONNOR ATTACKS THE INTELLECTUAL HONESTY OF THE PREDICTION MARKET RESEARCHERS.

Posted on January 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Niall O’Connor (who maybe ate grilled snake for his Sunday morning breakfast ): The current trend to promote almost illiquid betting markets as being predictive, looks set to backfire bigstyle. In a nutshell, to date the so called “prediction markets” … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Ethics | Tagged CONNOR ATTACKS, criticism, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Michigan, New Hampshire, Niall O'Connor, prediction markets, South Carolina | 8 Comments

Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada + Republican primary in South Carolina

Posted on January 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here are the event derivative charts of expired InTrade contracts. [Psstt... I have high hopes about being able to publish the charts of expired BetFair contracts, too, soon. ] — — Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada — Democratic caucus … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, John McCain, Mike Husckabee, Mitt Romney, Nevada, Nevada caucus, Politics, prediction markets, South Carolina, South Carolina primary, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections | Leave a comment

Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada + Republican primary in South Carolina

Posted on January 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

— Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada — Democratic caucus in Nevada (Hillary Clinton = 57.4%): BetFair Democratic prediction markets — Democratic caucus in Nevada (Barack Obama = 42%): BetFair Democratic prediction markets — Republican caucus in Nevada (Mitt Romney … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Nevada, Nevada caucus, Politics, prediction markets, South Carolina, South Carolina primary, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections | Leave a comment

The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby

Posted on January 18, 2008 by Caveat Bettor

If McCain wins SC, the GOP contest will be called for Intrade. If Thompson or Romney wins, that contest will be called for Zogby. If any other GOP candidate wins, the contest will end in a draw. If Obama wins … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Dem NV, event derivative markets, event derivatives, H.Clinton, InTrade, Nevada, polls, prediction markets, Republican Party, South Carolina, Zogby | 2 Comments

Intrade politics roundup, May 18

Posted on May 18, 2007 by Alex Forshaw

Monsieur Masse asked me to offer another nomination-futures roundup. I was happy to oblige. First, the Republicans. Fred Thompson has not impressed at his two “policy” speeches thus far (the first in OC, the second at the “Council for National … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged added media attention, Barack, Council for National Policy, environmental activist, Florida, Fred Thompson, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ron Paul, South Carolina, Ted Kennedy, Tom Bevan, Virginia | 3 Comments

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