Tag Archives: Sean Carroll
FAMOUS SCIENTIST TO ROBIN “HIGH IQ” HANSON: Science, which is a very long-term endeavor, does not need your stickin’ idea about scoreable predictions and track records. Please, go back to minding economic issues in your Ivory Tower, and let us run science our way, on our timing. Thanks. Appreciated.
Overcoming Whatever:
I don’t really think the comparison with sports/business/weather forecasters really holds up, for a prosaic reason — in particle physics, the timescale for experiments is years and decades, not days. There is no way to efficiently grade/reward people on the accuracy of their predictions, and correspondingly no real incentive for anyone to make very [...]
Successful predictions or correct assumptions?
An aside from Cosmic Variance’s Sean Carroll:
(In the wake of Milton Friedmann’s death, folks have been re-arguing his contention that successful predictions from an economic model are more important than correct assumptions underlying it. I would hope that both are important.)
Any comment on that, folks?
SHORT TERM: “Successful predictions” is the important stuff.
LONG TERM: “Correct assumptions” [...]
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