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Tag Archives: Sean Carroll
FAMOUS SCIENTIST TO ROBIN “HIGH IQ” HANSON: Science, which is a very long-term endeavor, does not need your stickin’ idea about scoreable predictions and track records. Please, go back to minding economic issues in your Ivory Tower, and let us run science our way, on our timing. Thanks. Appreciated.
Overcoming Whatever: I don’t really think the comparison with sports/business/weather forecasters really holds up, for a prosaic reason — in particle physics, the timescale for experiments is years and decades, not days. There is no way to efficiently grade/reward people … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Science
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Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), prediction markets, Robin Hanson, scoreable forecasts, scoreable predictions, Sean Carroll, track records
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Successful predictions or correct assumptions?
An aside from Cosmic Variance’s Sean Carroll: (In the wake of Milton Friedmann’s death, folks have been re-arguing his contention that successful predictions from an economic model are more important than correct assumptions underlying it. I would hope that both … Continue reading →