Tag Archives: SCOTUS

U.S. Supreme Court Prediction Market — [PAPER]

Recently posted to SSRN: FantasySCOTUS: Crowdsourcing a Prediction Market for the Supreme Court, a draft paper by Josh Blackman, Adam Aft, & Corey Carpenter assessing the accuracy of the Harlan Institute’s U.S. Supreme Court prediction market, FantasySCOTUS.org. The paper compares … Continue reading

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Prediction markets have failed at forecasting correctly an important event —*once again*.

LAT: Sonia Sotomayor is Obama’s Supreme Court nominee. Via our good friend Daniel Horowitz Previously: Prediction markets failed miserably at forecasting accurately the American Idol winner.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 4 Comments