Tag Archives: scientific approach
The prediction markets chalk another one up, as Susan Boyle is sent packing.
I have an ongoing disagreement with Prof Panos about how to report a set of expired prediction markets. He claims that one should report “the historic average of similar markets”. That’s important but not urgent. First thing is to report whether one prediction market of interest has failed or succeeded. I have explained that that [...]
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism
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Also tagged accuracy, betting markets, Britain's Got Talent 2009, event derivative markets, expiry, HubDub, InTrade, marketing approach, Panos Ipeirotis, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, quoting the prediction markets, reporting on prediction markets, Science, statistical and probabilistic approach, Susan Boyle
Why reporting on *one* expired prediction market is no fun… when using the scientific approach
Panos Ipeirotis hates it when I report an individual prediction market “failure“. (“Stupidity” is how he labelled it. )
I am a fan of Panos Ipeirotis’s scientific approach on prediction markets. It is all right.
However, I (obviously) won’t use the statistical and probabilistic approach when reporting about the expiry of one (or two) prediction [...]
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism, Science
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Also tagged accuracy, betting markets, event derivative markets, expiry, Internet Marketing, marketing, marketing approach, Panos Ipeirotis, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, quoting the prediction markets, reporting on prediction markets, Science, statistical and probabilistic approach
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