Tag Archives: Ronald Reagan

Electability of Hillary Clinton according to InTrade-TradeSports = 65%

Eddy Elfenbein at Crossing Wall Street: I written about this topic before but one of the things I find fascinating about finance is how you can use markets for two items to create an “implied market” for a third. This … Continue reading

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Predictor Accuracy: the Hedgehog vs. the Fox

— Ellen Goodman: [...] The closed-minded hedgehogs are those who know ”one big thing” and relate everything to that single, central vision. The open-minded foxes ”know many little things” and accept ambiguity and contradictions. [...] It’s no surprise that foxes … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Inventions & Innovations, Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Have you ever read about the reasons they attacked us? They attack us because we’ve been over there.

Ron Paul. The Nation: Asked about his opposition to the invasion and occupation of Iraq, Paul repeated his oft-expressed concern that instead of making the U.S. safer, U.S. interventions in the Middle East over the years have stirred up anti-American … Continue reading

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Justin Wolfers can’t believe that prediction markets don’t show already a clear win for the Dems in the 2008 presidential election.

How Much Do Election Shakeups Affect the Nation’s Economy? – [US politics & financial markets] – by Justin Wolfers and Mark Thoma – 2006-11-03 [Justin Wolfers] And the major puzzle that I currently see? The past two years have clearly … Continue reading

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