Tag Archives: Robert Erikson

Professor Christopher Wlezien on his research on how election prediction markets compare to polls.

Posted on September 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Professor Christopher Wlezien on his research on how election prediction markets compare to polls: Markets vs. Polls as Predictors: An Historical Assessment of US Presidential Elections – (PDF file) – by Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien

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Damped polls are superior to prediction markets as election predictors.

Posted on March 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? – (PDF file) – by Chris Wlezien and Robert Erikson – 2007 Abstract Election markets have been praised for their ability to forecast election outcomes, and to forecast better than … Continue reading →

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Damped polls outperform prediction markets.

Posted on March 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Forecasting Principles: Damping polls Evidence from the literature shows that polls, in particular early in the campaign, are not reliable in predicting election outcomes but tend to overestimate the extent to which a candidate leads. To deal with these uncertainties, … Continue reading →

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Polls over prediction markets?

Posted on November 19, 2007 by Nigel Eccles

‘Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors’ is a paper by Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezian that calls into question whether prediction markets, and specifically IEM, is as accurate as proponents of prediction markets claim. The paper … Continue reading →

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