Tag Archives: probability

How Business Insider got it wrong with the Tiger Woods divorce cost odds

Posted on December 16, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

PaddyPower is a bookmaker, not a prediction exchange. Hence, the Tiger Woods divorce cost odds are computed by an analyst, not by the market. 1. It is not the “punters” who have fabricated the odds, but a PaddyPower employee. 2. … Continue reading →

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The Elements of Statistical Learning

Posted on October 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The Elements of Statistical Learning Free PDF file

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The 2 NorthWest Flight 188 pilots who missed Minneapolis were surfing the Internet in the cockpit. – CLICK TO READ THE STORY.

Posted on October 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

NorthWest Flight 188

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Why statistics (and probability) ought to be taught over calculus in America’s mathematics curriculum

Posted on July 8, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Students should aspire to be “data samurais”. Andrew Gelman, Lance Fortnow, Panos Ipeirotis and Bo Cowgill are hot again all of the sudden. Amazing videos of Arthur Benjamin:

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Probability and Predictability

Posted on July 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Wikipedia: Some aspects of predicting the future, such as celestial mechanics, have been discovered to be highly statistically predictable, and may even be described by relatively simple mathematical models. At present however, science has yielded only a special minority of … Continue reading →

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Implied Probability of an Outcome –BetFair Edition

Posted on January 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

“Does prediction market guru [= Chris Masse] understand probabilities?“, asks our good friend Niall O’Connor. — — Let’s ask economics PhD Michael Giberson: Yes, I think you are right. I just looked at your exchange with Niall and Niall’s post, … Continue reading →

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BetFair Digital Odds = BetFair Probabilities

Posted on January 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Odds that Hillary Clinton gets the 2008 Democratic nomination = 1.56 (digital odds taken at 9:15 AM EST) To get the implied probability expressed in percentage: Take the number “1″; Divided it by the digital odds (here “1.56″); Then multiply … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 12 Comments

Assessing Probabilistic Predictions 101

Posted on January 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Lance Fortnow: [...] Notice that when we have a surprise victory in a primary, like Clinton in New Hampshire, much of the talk revolves on why the pundits, polls and prediction markets all “failed.” Meanwhile in sports when we see … Continue reading →

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Defining Probability in Prediction Markets

Posted on January 13, 2008 by Panos Ipeirotis

The New Hampshire Democratic primary was one of the few(?) events in which prediction markets did not give an “accurate” forecast for the winner. In a typical “accurate” prediction, the candidate that has the contract with the highest price ends … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments