Tag Archives: Prime Minister

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College

Posted on July 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com). By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References | Tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US elections, 2008 US electoral map prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Americans, CNN, David Pennock, electoral college, electoral college markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, electoral markets, electoral predictions, electoral vote, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Iowa, Lance Fortnow, market data, objective probabilistic predictions, Political Party, Politics, predicted probabilities, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Predictions, President, Prime Minister, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson, U.S. House of Representatives, United Kingdom, United States, United States Of America, United States Senate, US elections, US electoral college, US House Of Representatives Elections, US politics, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, Yahoo!, Yiling Chen | 1 Comment

IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets

Posted on June 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

http://www.marketsforforecasting.com/ now redirects to: http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PM/ – I have listed Andreas Graefe’s sub-website everywhere —and I have also put the link here, at the bottom of our blog sidebar. (I’m too good, I know. ) Best wishes to him. -

Posted in Resources - References | Tagged Andreas Graefe, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting Principles, IIF's SIG on Prediction Markets, International Institute of Forecasters, Knowledge, prediction markets, Prime Minister, resources | 1 Comment

Tasmania’s Prime Minister who licenced BetFair Australia departs “abruptly”.

Posted on May 27, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Mercury + The Austrlalian Hello to our readers from Down Under. -

Posted in Politics | Tagged Australia, BetFair Australia, Paul Lennon, Prime Minister, Tasmania | Leave a comment

BetFair-TradeFair has won its second Queenâ€™s Award for Enterprise in its eight-year history.

Posted on April 21, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair Corporate (PDF file): 21st April 2008 BETFAIR WINS SECOND QUEENâ€™S AWARD FOR ENTERPRISE Online betting company recognised for International Trade BETFAIR, the UKâ€™s biggest online betting company, is proud to announce that it has won its second Queenâ€™s Award … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accumulator products, Australia, Austria, BetFair, BetFair Mobile, chairman and co-founder, chief executive, David Yu, Edward Wray, European Union, Ireland, Italy, licensed betting operator, Malta, online betting, own Betfair Mobile, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Queen, Queenâ€™s Award for Enterprise, select group, Stevenage, The Sporting Exchange, TradeFair, United Kingdom | 1 Comment

“I’m very concerned with the international situation and what’s happening in Tibet.”

Posted on April 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- International Olympic Committee head Jacques Rogge – Olympics @ Wikipedia – - – Contract Rules – This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if there is an official boycott of the 2008 Olympic games in Beijing announced before … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 Olympic games, Beijing, China, European Union, event derivative markets, event derivatives, France, Germany, head, International Olympic Committee, InTrade, Jacques Rogge, media sources, Midas Oracle Predictions, Olympic, Olympics, Olympics 2008, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Tibet, United States, USD | Leave a comment

The Prime Minister of Ireland has just said he will resign, but neither InTrade nor BetFair would give the first fig.

Posted on April 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade do not have any open “Bertie Ahern” prediction markets. InTrade do not have any closed “Bertie Ahern” either. BetFair do have a series of “Bye Bye Bertie” prediction markets —still open at the time of writing. So I deduce … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged Austria, Bertie Ahern, BetFair, Germany, HubDub, InTrade, Ireland, Larry Craig, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Republic of Ireland, Taoiseach | Leave a comment

Google’s Bo Cowgill takes a swipe at the prediction market software vendors.

Posted on March 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06 – Bo Cowgill: [...] Trade-by-trade data can reveal characteristics of specific working … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Consulting | Tagged architect, Bo Cowgill, Consensus Point, corporate prediction markets, David Perry, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Zitwewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, Google's enterprise prediction markets, Inkling, inkling markets, internal prediction markets, Justin Wolfers, Motorola, NewsFutures, prediction market consultants, prediction market software vendors, prediction markets, Prime Minister, private prediction markets, Qualcomm, Siemens, Social Networks, software engineers, software-and-consulting model | 2 Comments

Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work? — Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

Posted on March 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06 – VIDEO — Bo Cowgill on Google’s enterprise prediction markets — O’Reilly Money:Tech … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Business, Cases, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, active trader, advanced researcher, anonymous trading, architect, Bo Cowgill, CDA model for their markets, CEO, Chief Economist, computer-aided facility management systems, corporate applications, corporate prediction markets, crowd-wisdom applications, demographic networks, Doug Banks, economist, efficieny, Enterprise prediction market consultant, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Schmidt, Eric Zitwewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, gas prices, Google, Google Using Prediction, Google's enterprise prediction markets, Google's prediction exchange, Google's prediction markets, GPS, Hal Varian, high profile applications, Ilya Kirnos, implicit social networks, internal prediction markets, James Surowiecki, Jed Christiansen, Justin Wolfers, language networks, Linux, Michael Giberson, open-source software, Patri Friedman, Piaw Na, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Private, private prediction markets, real estate management group, Robin Hanson, Social Networks, social/professional networks, software engineers, software-and-consulting model, the New York Times, Tim Harford, Trader, ubiquitous communication technology, United States, USD, value applications, Zubin Jelveh | 18 Comments

BARACK OBAMA = NEXT US PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Posted on February 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

LIKE HIM OR NOT, THIS IS THE 44th US PRESIDENT, ACCORDING TO THE PREDICTION MARKETS. GET USED TO IT. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, CNN, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Iowa, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Political Party, Politics, prediction markets, President, Prime Minister, Robin Hanson, U.S. House of Representatives, United Kingdom, United States, United States Of America, United States Senate, US elections, US electoral college, US House Of Representatives Elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, Yahoo! | Leave a comment

Justin Wolfers will be glued on InTrade on Super Tuesday night.

Posted on February 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Much better piece than last time. No more prediction market event study —quite boring and of dubious quality. This time, he outputs a quality forward-looking piece, with a good narrative. [...] While momentum tends to build slowly in polling data, … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Clinton, distributed computing, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Politics, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Senate, Super Tuesday, The WSJ editor, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, Wall Street Journal | 2 Comments

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