Tag Archives: prediction market prices

Free Prediction Market Data — Trading Fees

Posted on May 15, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

If you think of it, the business model of BetFair and InTrade should be to deliver free prediction market data to the world, while leveraging trading fees on the bettors. Agree?

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Business, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged BetFair, bettors, business models, free, InTrade, prediction market data, prediction market prices, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, traders | 8 Comments

Don’t event derivative prices represent aggregated expected probabilities, rather?

Posted on November 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade CEO’s poodle got corrected on the concept of interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities: – - LoudNotes, please contact me, I do have a vacant blog author slot to fill: cfm |-at-| midasoracle |.|-com-| chrisfmasse |-at-| gmail |.|-com-| -

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Science | Tagged aggregated expected probabilities, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivative prices, imputed likelihood of uncertain events, interpreting prices as probabilities, InTrade, Jason Ruspini, LoudNotes, preceived likelihood of uncertain events, prediction market prices, prediction markets, probabilities | 1 Comment

WORLD-WIDE WEB EXCLUSIVE (PLEASE, DO CREDIT “MIDAS ORACLE” FOR THE SCOOP): Here’s what Nigel Eccles drinks when he works on the HubDub mission statement.

Posted on July 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Nigel Eccles: Quoting HubDub forecasts in news stories about future events will be as common as quoting stock prices in financial stories is today or (in the UK) quoting betting odds for political elections. – In my view, the … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Prediction Journalism | Tagged bloggers, Blogosphere, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HubDub, HubDub mission, Humor, journalists, Max Keiser, Media, Mediasphere, Nigel Eccles, Open Media, play-money prediction markets, prediction market journalism, prediction market prices, prediction markets, strategy, television, TV, United Kingdom, WEB EXCLUSIVE | 2 Comments

Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.

Posted on July 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

[IMPORTANT NOTE: This present post is critical of one point expressed by Nigel Eccles, but, overall, I like this Scottish guy, and I enjoy HubDub's prediction markets a lot.] – Nigel Eccles: Quoting HubDub forecasts in news stories about future … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism | Tagged America, Asia, author, bloggers, Blogosphere, Emile Servan-Schreiber, entrepreneur, Europe, event derivative markets, event derivatives, gifted exchange executive, HubDub, Internet Usability, journalists, Justin Wolfers, Maurice Balick, Media, Mediasphere, NewsFutures, Nigel Eccles, Nigel Eccles' mission, Open Media, play-money prediction markets, prediction market journalism, prediction market prices, prediction markets, strategy, United Kingdom | 5 Comments

Reporting prediction market probabilities

Posted on April 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

David Pennock takes a sudden interest in prediction market journalism. Good. (Better late than never.) My thoughts: Do report the probabilities, not the prices. Do not report spread info. Do report probabilities from the very top, most liquid prediction markets, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Prediction Journalism | Tagged David Pennock, David Pennockl, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Jason Ruspini, Michael Giberson, prediction market journalism, prediction market prices, prediction market probabilities, prediction markets | Leave a comment