Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: prediction market prices

Free Prediction Market Data — Trading Fees

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 15, 2009 — 8 Comments

If you think of it, the business model of BetFair and InTrade should be to deliver free prediction market data to the world, while leveraging trading fees on the bettors. Agree?

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Business, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , , , ,

Don’t event derivative prices represent aggregated expected probabilities, rather?

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 2, 2008 — 1 Comment

InTrade CEO’s poodle got corrected on the concept of interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities:
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LoudNotes, please contact me, I do have a vacant blog author slot to fill:

cfm |-at-| midasoracle |.|-com-|
chrisfmasse |-at-| gmail |.|-com-|

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Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Science | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

WORLD-WIDE WEB EXCLUSIVE (PLEASE, DO CREDIT “MIDAS ORACLE” FOR THE SCOOP): Here’s what Nigel Eccles drinks when he works on the HubDub mission statement.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 26, 2008 — 2 Comments

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Nigel Eccles:
Quoting HubDub forecasts in news stories about future events will be as common as quoting stock prices in financial stories is today or (in the UK) quoting betting odds for political elections.
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In my view, the only way our good friend Nigel Eccles would succeed would be to get HubDub on television —like our good [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 24, 2008 — 5 Comments

[IMPORTANT NOTE: This present post is critical of one point expressed by Nigel Eccles, but, overall, I like this Scottish guy, and I enjoy HubDub's prediction markets a lot.]
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Nigel Eccles:
Quoting HubDub forecasts in news stories about future events will be as common as quoting stock prices in financial stories is today or (in the UK) [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Reporting prediction market probabilities

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 26, 2008 — Leave a Comment

David Pennock takes a sudden interest in prediction market journalism. Good. (Better late than never.)
My thoughts:

Do report the probabilities, not the prices.
Do not report spread info.
Do report probabilities from the very top, most liquid prediction markets, only.

Michael Giberson and Jason Ruspini, what do you think?

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Prediction Journalism | Also tagged , , , , , , , ,

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