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Tag Archives: prediction market accuracy
Koleman Strumpf assesses the election forecast.
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities
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Tagged accuracy, assessing election forecast, BetFair Predicts, historical prediction markets, Koleman Strumpf, prediction acccuracy, prediction market accuracy, prediction markets
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Is Intrade out on a limb?
As I write this, Intrade gives the advantage to McCain over Obama and has the Republican party even with the Democratic party to win the election, whereas all the other prediction markets, meaning IEM, Betfair, and the NewsFutures play-money kind … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities
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Tagged accuracy, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, efficiency, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, NewsFutures, polls, polls vs. prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction market accuracy, prediction market analysis, prediction market efficiency, prediction markets
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