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Tag Archives: polls vs. prediction markets

POLLS AGGREGATOR SLAMS INTRADE: The prediction markets are a bunch of laggards, number one, and, number two, they f*ck it up as often as polls do.

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 24, 2008 — 1 Comment

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators | Also tagged electoral-vote.com, InTrade, political polls, political prediction markets, polls, prediction markets, prediction markets outperform polls, US elections, US politics

Is Intrade out on a limb?

Written by Emile Servan-Schreiber on September 12, 2008 — 34 Comments

As I write this, Intrade gives the advantage to McCain over Obama and has the Republican party even with the Democratic party to win the election, whereas all the other prediction markets, meaning IEM, Betfair, and the NewsFutures play-money kind still favor a Democrat in the White House. That disconnect prompted Chris to wonder aloud [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged accuracy, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, efficiency, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, NewsFutures, polls, prediction exchanges, prediction market accuracy, prediction market analysis, prediction market efficiency, prediction markets

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