Tag Archives: polls vs. prediction markets

POLLS AGGREGATOR SLAMS INTRADE: The prediction markets are a bunch of laggards, number one, and, number two, they f*ck it up as often as polls do.

Posted on September 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Is Intrade out on a limb?

Posted on September 12, 2008 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

As I write this, Intrade gives the advantage to McCain over Obama and has the Republican party even with the Democratic party to win the election, whereas all the other prediction markets, meaning IEM, Betfair, and the NewsFutures play-money kind … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 34 Comments