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- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
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Tag Archives: polls versus prediction markets
Prediction markets react to polls.
Learning in Investment Decisions: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Polls – (PDF file) – David S. Lee and Enrico Moretti – 2008-12-XX In this paper, we explore how polls and prediction markets interact in the context of the 2008 U.S. … Continue reading →
State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction
Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities. I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. – Contents a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral … Continue reading →
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
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Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, state polls, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor
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2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections
Folks, – IMPORTANT NOTE: – Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets. – Additionally, the other blog (Midas … Continue reading →
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities
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Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor
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Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president?
A quick link panorama. – #1. Is InTrade being manipulated? – Nate Silver shows that there are abrupt downward pressures on the Barack Obama event derivative, while we also see some abrupt upward pressures on the Hillary Clinton event derivative. … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading
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Tagged arbitrage opportunities, arbitrages, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting markets, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Freakonomics, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Lance Fortnow, manipulation attempts, manipulations, market arbitrages, market manipulations, Nate Silver, polls, polls versus prediction markets, Portfolio, prediction markets, state correlations, Zubin Jelveh
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