Tag Archives: polling

Pollster John Zogby attacks statistician Nate Silver. — “You take other people’s polls, compare records for predictions, add in some purely arbitrary (and not transparent) weights, then make your own projections and rankings.”

John Zogby to Nate Silver: Don’t Create Standards You Will Find Hard to Maintain Yourself. Be Honest. Understand That There’s Much More to Being a Good Pollster. Appreciate Innovation. Do Some Polling. Nate Silver responds. UPDATE: Prof Andrew Gelman’s take.

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CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

The fine people at CrowdCast (Mat Fogarty and Leslie Fine) are finally out today with their brand-new, no-trading, collective forecasting mechanism. The purpose is to aggregate information across one organization so as to generate the most objective business forecasts. The … Continue reading

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Why CrowdCast ditched Robin Hanson’s MSR as the engine of its IAM software

- Leslie Fine of CrowdCast: Chris, As Emile points out, in 2003 I started experimenting with (and empirically validating) alternatives to the traditional stock-market metaphor that will be more viable in corporate settings. We found the level of confusion and … Continue reading

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The 2008 US presidential election was “pretty close”, and Nate Silver’s state poll aggregation “pretty much nailed” it.

The pretty good Andrew Gelman: – This is a (not yet expired) static chart from InTrade on whether the RCP poll aggregation have been accurate:

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Predictify’s 2008 US electoral map

Predictify’s 2008 US electoral map. $100,000 are at stake.

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WHY THE PREDICTION MARKETS WILL LIKELY F**K UP SUPER TUESDAY 2008.

Via Wall Street investor and blogger Barry Ritholtz, Wall Street Journal’ s June Kronholz: In Campaign 2008, Pollsters Are Biggest Losers • The Issue – Opinion-poll results were wide of the mark in early-voting states and will likely misjudge the … Continue reading

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