Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: political elections

TradeFair (the British equivalent of HedgeStreet) has opened 2 sets of prediction markets on UK and US politics.

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 1, 2008 — Leave a Comment
Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , , , ,

2 interesting links — Monday Morning Edition

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 11, 2008 — Leave a Comment

- 2 pieces of research by HP Labs’ Social Computing Lab, headed by Bernardo Huberman.
- The Economist on how the US stock markets (not the “prediction markets”) can predict political elections. A bad piece, in my view.
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Posted in Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics | Also tagged , ,

NEWS FROM DOWN UNDER: A political prediction exchange for New Zealand

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 7, 2008 — 4 Comments
Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , , , ,

2020’s PREDICTION MARKET JOURNALISM = Polls + Experts + Prediction Markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 30, 2008 — 2 Comments

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Justin Wolfers interview:
[...] Wolfers predicted that cable news shows would turn to prediction-market experts for analysis in 2008. “My forecast is that they’ll either have someone in the studio whose job it is to track the markets, or the James Carvilles of the world will learn how to interpret the markets, and they’ll integrate that [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Justin Wolfers Country has turned Left… as predicted by the prediction markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 27, 2007 — Leave a Comment

The Washington Post on Australia’s November 2007 political elections.
The prediction market charts below were taken a bit before the close of the Australian polling stations, last Saturday.
BetFair (on Australia’s Labor Party, which ended winning):

BetFair had a complete set of Australian political election prediction markets:

InTrade-TradeSports:

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , ,

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