Tag Archives: political elections

InTrade traders are predicting that Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election. – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Posted on February 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade CEO John Delaney on CNBC (January 25, 2011). [Download this post to watch the embedded video, if your feed reader does not show it to you.] Barack Obama re-election prediction market:

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Barack Obama re-election prediction market – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Posted on December 29, 2010 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

TradeFair (the British equivalent of HedgeStreet) has opened 2 sets of prediction markets on UK and US politics.

Posted on September 1, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

2 interesting links — Monday Morning Edition

Posted on August 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- 2 pieces of research by HP Labs’ Social Computing Lab, headed by Bernardo Huberman. – The Economist on how the US stock markets (not the “prediction markets”) can predict political elections. A bad piece, in my view. -

Posted in Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

NEWS FROM DOWN UNDER: A political prediction exchange for New Zealand

Posted on May 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

2020′s PREDICTION MARKET JOURNALISM = Polls + Experts + Prediction Markets

Posted on April 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Justin Wolfers interview: [...] Wolfers predicted that cable news shows would turn to prediction-market experts for analysis in 2008. “My forecast is that they’ll either have someone in the studio whose job it is to track the markets, or … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Justin Wolfers Country has turned Left… as predicted by the prediction markets.

Posted on November 27, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The Washington Post on Australia‘s November 2007 political elections. The prediction market charts below were taken a bit before the close of the Australian polling stations, last Saturday. BetFair (on Australia’s Labor Party, which ended winning): BetFair had a complete … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment