Tag Archives: Philip Tetlock

Keeping score of experts’ forecasts — [VIDEO]

Posted on December 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Philip Tetlock:

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology | Tagged Collective Intelligence, expertise, experts, forecasting, forecasts, Philip Tetlock, predicting, Predictions, Psychology, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Philip Tetlock’s forecasting project is now open to non-US participants. — [UPDATE]

Posted on August 2, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

IMPORTANT: IARPA has removed the US citizenship requirement for survey participants. – Philip E. Tetlock et al.: Prediction markets can harness the “wisdom of crowds” to solve problems, develop products, and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology, Research | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Economics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, forecasting, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, Justin Wolfers, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Psychology, Research | Leave a comment

100% Pure Cockiness — [EVIDENCE]

Posted on March 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

The Good Judgment: Prediction markets can harness the ‘wisdom of crowds’ to solve problems, develop products, [*] and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as a commodity to be mined, not a resource that can be grown and … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Research | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, forecasting, forecasts, Justin Wolfers, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions | 2 Comments

Research on how people use the knowledge they have to develop expectations about the future and what sorts or processes and strategies lead to success — [STUDY]

Posted on March 9, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Philip E. Tetlock et al.: Prediction markets can harness the “wisdom of crowds” to solve problems, develop products, and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as a commodity to be mined, not a resource that can be grown … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology, Research | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, forecasting, forecasts, Justin Wolfers, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions | 4 Comments

Counterfactual Thinking – [VIDEO]

Posted on February 18, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Psychology | Tagged counterfactual thinking, Philip Tetlock, Psychology | Leave a comment

Is Robin Hanson a fox or a hedgehog?

Posted on November 20, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Read Tyler Cowen’s description of Robin Hanson, and then answer these 2 questions: – Is Robin Hanson a fox or a hedgehog? – Is Tyler Cowen a fox or a hedgehog? Comment below, or e-mail me if you want your … Continue reading →

Posted in People, Psychology | Tagged fox, foxes, hedgehog, hedgehogs, Philip Tetlock, Robin Hanson, Tyler Cowen | 2 Comments

When we score the accuracy of thousands of predictions from hundreds of experts across dozens of countries over twenty years, we find the best forecasters tend to be modest about their forecasting skills, eclectic in their ideological and theoretical tastes, and self-critical in their analytical styles.

Posted on August 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

“Relative to foxes who are less encumbered by loyalties to an all-encompassing worldview, hedgehogs offer bolder forecasts and, although they hit occasional grand slams, they strike out a lot and wind up with decidedly poorer batting averages.“ Philip Tetlock –of … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology | Tagged accuracy, forecasting, foxes, hedgehogs, Philip Tetlock | Leave a comment

Midas Oracle now on Twitter.

Posted on May 1, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Yesterday, I advised you not to publish on Twitter. In all French logic ( ), I have now opened a Twitter account for Midas Oracle, and will be (automatically) publishing there teasers (with links) to the latest Midas Oracle posts … Continue reading →

Posted in Information Technology, Midas Oracle Administration, Psychology | Tagged blog posts, foxes, hedgehog, hedgehogs, Midas Oracle, Open Media, ox, Philip Tetlock, posts, predictive ability, Psychology, Twitter | 2 Comments

The miracle of information aggregation and prediction accuracy

Posted on April 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Philip Tetlock interviewed (last year): IDEAS: Any individual expert is likely to be wrong. What happens when you put a bunch of them in the same room? Does the consensus come up with a better prediction than the individual? TETLOCK: … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology, Resources - References | Tagged accuracy, Collective Intelligence, Expert Political Judgment, experts, forecasters, Forecasting (Science & Practice), foxes, hedgehogs, information aggregation, Philip Tetlock, predicting, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, Predictions, The Wisdom Of Crowds, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

That’s a good one.

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Dr. Tetlock is an expert, which by his own research would seem to indicate that he is probably wrong! Excellent.

Posted in Humor | Tagged expertise, experts, Humor, Philip Tetlock | Leave a comment

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