BELOW IS THE CHART OF A SETTLED PREDICTION MARKET:
Will Patrick Swayze die before April 15, 2008?
It was settled on “-no”-.
HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles thinks that his traders “-quickly came to the conclusion that the [early 2008] story [giving him 5 weeks to live] was bogus.”- And Nigel Eccles asks, “-Is this an example where a death pool prediction market is actually socially valuable?”-
In my view:
- It’-s the opinion makers external to HubDub who should decide this. If most people and/or lawmakers decide that prediction markets on deaths and assassinations are disgusting and unacceptable, then they should be pruned. We need goodwill towards the prediction markets if we want the real-money prediction markets to be legalized everywhere.
- Would Nigel Eccles accept a prediction market about when his wife (or kid) is going to die?
- Is there a social utility in knowing when exactly a celebrity is going to die (supposing that such a prediction market could be accurate)? For a head of state, a running politician, or a Justice, that information might have a value. However, in the case of a Hollywood celebrity, I don’-t see where the value lays. A prediction market on the upcoming death of a celebrity would participate in that big, stupid circus that occurs today, with paparazzi and tabloids taking an importance that they shouldn’-t have in the first place. Our youth would be better off browsing and betting on prediction markets about science and technology. We should elevate our global civilization. I don’-t see any (social or individual) benefit about knowing in advance when exactly Patrick Swayze is going to die. I am scratching my head right now —-and I still don’-t see any reason why we should spend our precious time blogging on this issue, betting on that, or collecting probabilistic predictions on that. I just don’-t. (If you have a counter argument, do publish a comment below.)
- The very best wishes to Patrick Swayze, by the way.