Tag Archives: Oscars 2010

OSCARS 2010: Did Justin Wolfers brag too much and too loudly? — [RELATIVE ACCURACY DEPARTMENT]

Posted on March 10, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Jason (a Freakonomics reader): You are giving yourself WAY too much credit. Siskel and Ebert successfully predict these awards 100% year after year. This isn’t a difficult thing to predict. Predicting something like the NCAA tourney, that would be an … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Oscars 2010 Post-Mortem — InTrade Prediction Markets

Posted on March 8, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Professor Mark Perry is wrong to yell victory. Evaluating probabilistic predictions is tougher than one thinks. Source: InTrade

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment