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- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
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- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
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- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Tag Archives: Osama bin Laden
The future of futurism: crowds or entrepreneurs?
Chris Masse has already linked to The Economist story on futurists, which ends with a plug for prediction markets: The most heeded futurists these days are not individuals, but prediction markets, where the informed guesswork of many is consolidated into … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged Chris Masse, economist, entrepreneur, event derivative markets, event derivatives, futurism, futurists, futurology, George Bush, hedge funds, InTrade, Islamic Republic of Iran, John Seo, Lewis Scooter Libby, Michael Lewis, NYT Magazine, Osama bin Laden, prediction markets, risk
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The event futures contract on both Bin Laden and Musharraf at InTrade-TradeSports
InTrade-TradeSports: This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if BOTH of the following events occur before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract: 1. Osama Bin Laden is captured or neutralised 2. President Pervez Musharraf departs as … Continue reading
Who Was Right –Rudy Giuliani or Ron Paul?
Pat Buchanan: [...] Lest we forget, Osama bin Laden was among the mujahideen whom we, in the Reagan decade, were aiding when they were fighting to expel the Red Army from Afghanistan. We sent them Stinger missiles, Spanish mortars, sniper … Continue reading
Conditional and Combinatorial Betting
After people have used Prediction Markets for a while and have gotten used to their ability to provide forecasts, they start thinking about different scenarios. Who would be the best Republican to face Clinton? How are the prospects for a market boom or crash effected by the winner of the election? How will poverty be affected by a proposed World Bank program? These kinds of questions can be posed in a number of ways using Prediction Markets. Markets can allow betting on conditional (if) or conjunctive (and) questions. Either one can be used to answer the what if questions, but they provide different choices to the bettors, and some make it easier for observers to decode the answers. Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs, Software
Tagged Clinton, cross-product, DAVE PENNOCK, Eric Zitzewitz, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Justin Wolfers, Osama bin Laden, Peter McCluskey, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Robin Hanson, Todd Proebsting, USD
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