Tag Archives: Osama bin Laden

Nate Silver criticizes InTrade for its short-lived Obama bounce following Bin Laden’s assassination. — [CHART]

Scenarios.

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InTrade on the elimination of Osama Bin Laden — [ANALYSIS]

Mike Giberson: How do we know, now, that Intrade’s market price was not an accurate estimate of the probability bin Laden was killed or captured by September 2011? Is an prior estimate of 50 percent likelihood that a tossed coin … Continue reading

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InTrade was not able to predict the elimination of Osama Bin Laden. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

I already blogged about the big fail of the prediction markets. Here’s more from the NYT, Eddy Elfenbein, and Barry Ritholtz.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

We were lied to, of course. — [LINK]

In war times, governments always lie to their people. – a senior White House official said Bin Laden was not armed when he was killed [...] – it did not appear that any woman was used as a human shield … Continue reading

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The future of futurism: crowds or entrepreneurs?

Chris Masse has already linked to The Economist story on futurists, which ends with a plug for prediction markets: The most heeded futurists these days are not individuals, but prediction markets, where the informed guesswork of many is consolidated into … Continue reading

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The event futures contract on both Bin Laden and Musharraf at InTrade-TradeSports

InTrade-TradeSports: This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if BOTH of the following events occur before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract: 1. Osama Bin Laden is captured or neutralised 2. President Pervez Musharraf departs as … Continue reading

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Who Was Right –Rudy Giuliani or Ron Paul?

Pat Buchanan: [...] Lest we forget, Osama bin Laden was among the mujahideen whom we, in the Reagan decade, were aiding when they were fighting to expel the Red Army from Afghanistan. We sent them Stinger missiles, Spanish mortars, sniper … Continue reading

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BoDog founder Calvin Ayre, fugitive — BUSTED

Betting Market .com’s Niall O’Connor: Bodog founder hunted down in Tora Bora. Only three days after the arrest of Betonsport’s Gary Kaplan [BetOnSports founder Gary Kaplan, fugitive — BUSTED], news is breaking that the Department of Justice have finally got … Continue reading

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Conditional and Combinatorial Betting

After people have used Prediction Markets for a while and have gotten used to their ability to provide forecasts, they start thinking about different scenarios. Who would be the best Republican to face Clinton? How are the prospects for a market boom or crash effected by the winner of the election? How will poverty be affected by a proposed World Bank program? These kinds of questions can be posed in a number of ways using Prediction Markets. Markets can allow betting on conditional (if) or conjunctive (and) questions. Either one can be used to answer the what if questions, but they provide different choices to the bettors, and some make it easier for observers to decode the answers. Continue reading

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