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- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Tag Archives: oil prices
Do Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices?
Do Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices? Via Mike Linksvayer in a comment…
My response to the CFTC on event contracts
Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it. Given … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics, Regulations
Tagged arbitrator, Brookings Institution Press, candidate, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre, Congress, Democratic president, Department of the Treasury, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, Eriz Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, General, insurance contracts, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, oil prices, particular product, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, President, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, S&P 500, Securities and Exchange Commission, South Carolina, the candidate, Trader, United States, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USD, Washington D.C.
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An automated market maker subisdizes Robin Hanson’s presidential decision-aid markets on Intrade
Peter McCluskey: Automated Market Maker for certain Intrade contracts I have implemented subsidies to encourage trading of some conditional prediction market contracts that may provide useful information about the consequences of the 2008 presidential election, via a simple automated market … Continue reading
Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), X Groups
Tagged automated market maker, Clinton, conditional prediction markets, Congratulations Robin, decision markets, decision-aid markets, Democrat president, Democratic party, Federal Reserve System, InTrade, Iraq, Justin Wolfers, oil prices, Peter McCluskey, prediction markets, President, presidential decision markets, Python, Republican U.S., Robin Hanson, United States, University of Westminster, US government, US Treasury, USD
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Amateur Journalists (Bloggers) Vs. Professional Journalists (Media) Vs. Wisdom Of Crowds & Collective Intelligence (Wikipedia)
And the wisdom of crowds won, of course. That’s the conclusion I draw from reading Rogers Cadenhead at WorkBench, who assessed what would be the settlement of the LongBets wager on: In a Google search of five keywords or phrases … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Betting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Prediction Journalism
Tagged Amateur Journalists, Collective Intelligence, Dave Winer, Google, Iraq, Jason Kottke, LongBets, Martin Nisenholtz, media outlet ranks, New York Times, oil prices, Open Media, professional media, the New York Times, the Times, United States, USD, Virginia Tech, Vs. Wisdom Of Crowds & Collective Intelligence, Wikipedia, wisdom of crowds, Yahoo!
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The truth on the 2000–2003 US DoD’s DARPA’s IAO’s FutureMAP/Policy Analysis Market project.
The Policy Analysis Market project was badmouthed last week by Bruce Hansen of The Register, so I’m publishing here some excerpts of Robin Hanson’s verbatim. — Robin Hanson: [...] It fell to me to explore possible application areas, and after … Continue reading
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, History, Market Contract Statements
Tagged Arafat, Bruce Hansen, Charles Polk, Congress, date, David Pennock, Department of Defense, Israel, John Poindexter, media storm, North Korea, oil prices, prediction markets, research scientist, Robin Hanson, Saudi Arabia, secretary of defense, Senate, United States, US DoD, USD, Yahoo!
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The Recessions of 2003, 2004, 2006 & 2006
From today’s WSJ (subscription required): Meanwhile, back at the economy, you may have noticed that 2006 ended without a recession. This follows the recessions of 2003, 2004 and 2005, all of which also never occurred, though they were widely warned … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, The Global Economy
Tagged Congress, Dan Clifton, Don Luskin, economist, Ed Hyman, Europe, federal government, Germany, Joint Committee on Taxation, law policy test, legislator, New Year's Day, oil prices, USD
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2006 and the Econbrowser crystal ball
This seems like a good time to review some of the occasions over the last year when I’ve been brave (or foolish) enough to make a specific quantitative prediction. December 8, 2005. Only 17 more (oil) shopping days until December … Continue reading