Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Nobel Prize for Economics

Huge interest for the Nobel prize predictions, but the prediction markets are “pathetic”.

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 12, 2009 — 3 Comments

“Just shows you that there is a lot more to prediction markets than building the mechanism. These were the latest in pathetic examples of prediction markets.”
More from Paul Hewitt:
I can hardly wait for the prediction market calibration proponents to claim that these were not market failures. On the contrary, these outcomes show, precisely, that prediction [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 — Prediction Accuracy

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 12, 2009 — 18 Comments

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2009 to Elinor Ostrom “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons” and Oliver E. Williamson “for his analysis of economic governance, especially the boundaries of the firm”.
Both the bookmakers and [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 Predictions

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 9, 2009 — Leave a Comment

The 2009 Nobel prize for economics (2009 Sveriges Riksbank prize in economic sciences) will be awarded on Monday, October 12, 2009.
1. Bookmakers
Ladbrokes’s probabilities (odds) for the 2009 Nobel prize in economics:
Eugene Fama 2/1
Paul Romer 4/1
Ernst Fehr 6/1
Kenneth R. French 6/1
William Nordhaus 6/1
Robert Barro 7/1
Matthew J Rabin 8/1
Jean Tirole 9/1
Martin Weitzman 9/1
Chris Pissarides 10/1
Dale T Mortensen [...]

Posted in Betting, Collective Forecasting, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Who will get the 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 7, 2009 — Leave a Comment

1. Prediction Markets
2a. InTrade has just opened some Nobel prediction markets —see under “current events”.
2b. Inkling Markets – Which economist will receive the 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics (a.k.a. the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences)?
Previously: Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.
Stay away from these markets where the intention is [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Search

Post Categories