Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: NFL

LiveMocks employs a “wisdom of the crowd” technique to predict the order of the NFL and NBA drafts.

Live Mocks –> http://livemocks.com/
Contact Brian Boyd for more info.
http://twitter.com/livemocks
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Live-Mocks/282396780436

The Sport Event Derivative Trading Blog Of The Day

… is the YooNew blog… where Tom Brady is the talk of the week.
Best wishes to them.

The Value of Tom Brady?

New England Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending injury during yesterday’s game with the Kansas City Chiefs. After he left the game and before the extent of the injury was known, the TradeSport’s contract on whether the Pats would win the Super Bowl fell about 5 points (from 21 to 16). Then at about [...]

Fantasy Sport: The only way to crack open the US betting/gambling/gaming market… LEGALLY.

Wikipedia:
A fantasy sport (also known as rotisserie, roto, or fairy-tale sport; or owner simulation) is a game where fantasy owners build a team that competes against other fantasy owners based on the statistics generated by individual players or teams of a professional sport. Probably the most common variant converts statistical performance into points that are [...]

Has Justin Wolfers responded elsewhere to Rick Borghesi’s argument?

Rick Borghesi, in August 2007:
[...] I take the position (PDF) that, while point shaving in amateur sports may be somewhat more common than previously believed, the suspicious statistical trend that he identifies (heavy favorites win yet fail to cover the spread more often than expected) is unlikely to arise primarily from widespread corruption.
I base my [...]

Goff comments on Vegas vs. Sports Pundits at The Sports Economist

Brian Goff, writing at the sports economics group blog The Sports Economist, compared last year’s expert predictions of success in the NFL to the rankings implied by contemporaneous Vegas betting. Vegas wins.
Goff writes:
A couple of observations come to mind. First, the NFL future is an uncertain place regardless of whose predictions one wants to [...]

Forecasting Tools for Anything

Via economist Greg Mankiw, economist Ian Ayres:

Featured In Super Crunchers:
Predict Your Child’s Due Date (Ayres)
Predict the Value of Bordeaux (Ayres)
Predict Justice Kennedy’s Vote (Ayres)
Personal/Family:
Predict [...]

Cooperation between BetFair and the British Horseracing Authority: IT IS WORKING.

Via betting market expert Niall O’Connor, The Guardian:
Tom and Mark are the betting analysts in the security department at the British Horseracing Authority, and the breadth and power of the information at their disposal is remarkable. The sport in general now accepts that Betfair works closely with the regulators to fight corruption. It is still [...]

The NFL’s Home Underdog Bias: Timing and Weather

I have been studying the underdog (reverse favorite-longshot) bias and find that the timing of the phenomenon is potentially interesting. The two papers that I’ve published on this topic are:

The Late Season Bias: Explaining the NFL’s Home Underdog Effect (PDF file) and;
The Home Team Weather Advantage and Biases in the NFL Betting Market (PDF file).

Although [...]

Bill Hambrecht, who has made a name and fortune for himself by rattling the Wall Street establishment, will set his sights on the N.F.L. when he tries to launch a rival professional football league in 2008.

New York Times‘ Joe Nocera (who wrote a now gated article on internal prediction markets used by firms, last year)
–> Another professional football league in 2008?… Great. That will mean… more prediction markets at InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair and NewsFutures.

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