Tag Archives: New England Patriots
The Value of Tom Brady?
New England Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending injury during yesterday’s game with the Kansas City Chiefs. After he left the game and before the extent of the injury was known, the TradeSport’s contract on whether the Pats would win the Super Bowl fell about 5 points (from 21 to 16). Then at about [...]
YooNew, fears and hopes
YooNew is an online exchange based in New York City where fans may buy and sell “ticket derivatives”. The ticket derivatives are rights to tickets conditional on certain teams playing in certain playoff matches. So if you were to buy a New England Patriots Superbowl 42 “Fantasy Seat” for $1500, knowing that tickets [...]
Some interesting historical data on the Superbowl
From Allen St. John of the WSJ (subscription required):
Over the last 22 Super Bowls, 18 — 86% of them — were won by the team that came into the game after allowing fewer regular-season points. (In the 2004-05 regular season, the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles each allowed 260 points.) Not since the [...]
Conditional Superbowl victory probabilities
From Tradesports contracts:
70%
NFL.PATRIOTS
65%
NFL.COLTS
36%
NFL.SAINTS
33%
NFL.BEARS
Cross-posted from CaveatBettor. Last of 3 posts, the prior post available here.
Latest conditional probabilities for NFL playoff teams
As of noontime Mon Dec 8, the remaining 8 teams bayesian probabilities looked like this:
71%
NFL.COLTS
70%
NFL.PATRIOTS
67%
NFL.CHARGERS
62%
NFL.RAVENS
43%
NFL.SEAHAWKS
41%
NFL.EAGLES
35%
NFL.SAINTS
32%
NFL.BEARS
I have included last week’s probabilities as well. Note that this past weekend’s winners’ chances all increased, along with the Ravens. The other bye week teams’ chances all decreased.
As of 1230pm Thu Dec 4 2007, here’s what p (A | B) [...]
For those NFL fans who also subscribe to Bayes
Tradesports provides probability markets in Super Bowl and Conference victories. It logically follows that a team can only win the Super Bowl if it wins its conference, i.e. p (B | A) = 1. Bayes’ Theorem provides the probablity of a team winning the Super Bowl upon winning its conference, i.e. p (A | B).
As [...]
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