Tag Archives: New England Patriots

The Value of Tom Brady?

Posted on September 8, 2008 by Koleman Strumpf

New England Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending injury during yesterday’s game with the Kansas City Chiefs. After he left the game and before the extent of the injury was known, the TradeSport’s contract on whether the Pats would … Continue reading →

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YooNew, fears and hopes

Posted on October 23, 2007 by Jason Ruspini

YooNew is an online exchange based in New York City where fans may buy and sell “ticket derivatives”. The ticket derivatives are rights to tickets conditional on certain teams playing in certain playoff matches. So if you were to buy … Continue reading →

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Some interesting historical data on the Superbowl

Posted on February 2, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

From Allen St. John of the WSJ (subscription required): Over the last 22 Super Bowls, 18 — 86% of them — were won by the team that came into the game after allowing fewer regular-season points. (In the 2004-05 regular … Continue reading →

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Conditional Superbowl victory probabilities

Posted on January 16, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

From Tradesports contracts: 70% NFL.PATRIOTS 65% NFL.COLTS 36% NFL.SAINTS 33% NFL.BEARS Cross-posted from CaveatBettor. Last of 3 posts, the prior post available here.

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Latest conditional probabilities for NFL playoff teams

Posted on January 8, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

As of noontime Mon Dec 8, the remaining 8 teams bayesian probabilities looked like this: 71% NFL.COLTS 70% NFL.PATRIOTS 67% NFL.CHARGERS 62% NFL.RAVENS 43% NFL.SEAHAWKS 41% NFL.EAGLES 35% NFL.SAINTS 32% NFL.BEARS I have included last week’s probabilities as well. Note … Continue reading →

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For those NFL fans who also subscribe to Bayes

Posted on January 4, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

Tradesports provides probability markets in Super Bowl and Conference victories. It logically follows that a team can only win the Super Bowl if it wins its conference, i.e. p (B | A) = 1. Bayes’ Theorem provides the probablity of … Continue reading →

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