Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Nassim Taleb

WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU SAYS THAT NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB’S SLAM AT THE PREDICTION MARKETS IS UNSCIENTIFIC.

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 16, 2008 — Leave a Comment
Posted in Economics | Also tagged , ,

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Prediction markets are for fools. They might work for a binary election, but not in the Fourth Quadrant.

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 16, 2008 — 1 Comment
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged , , , ,

Black Swan & Predicting World War I

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 23, 2007 — 2 Comments

The inspired John De Palma writes to me:
With the TradeSports Saddam contracts, Justin Wolfers had it relatively easy in inferring the extent to which an anticipated war was built into financial market pricing. (Paper – PDF file).
A similar analysis for WWI: “(…) Ferguson is intrigued by the behavior of the financial markets on the eve [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Economics | Also tagged , , , , , ,

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