Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Monika Piazzesi

Interpreting fed funds futures

Written by James Hamilton on August 5, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Despite what you may have read elsewhere, the probability of a fed funds rate cut has increased significantly over the last few weeks.
Felix Salmon and Barry Ritholtz seemed to find more merit in this analysis from WSJ Real Time Economics than I did.
Since the stock market began to sink a week ago, the federal [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, The Global Economy | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Accuracy of futures prices as predictors of the fed funds rate

Written by James Hamilton on November 2, 2006 — Leave a Comment

I’m just finishing writing a new research paper whose goal is to come up with a better measure and understanding of the lagged effect of monetary policy on the economy. One of my claims is that the public’s expectations of what the Fed is going to do next play a key role in that process. [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , ,

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