Tag Archives: Missouri

The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading

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The war against online gambling

On 14 November 2007, in a statement made before the House of Representatives Committee on the Judiciary concerning internet gambling, Catherine Hanaway, the Unites States Attorney for the Eastern District of Missouri stated: It is the Department’s view, and that … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Presentation of Private Prediction Markets’ Legality Under U.S. Law

Koleman Strumpf has tapped me to discuss the legality of in-house prediction markets, tomorrow, at the Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets, at the Kauffman Foundation Conference Center, in lovely Kansas City, MO. I call my presentation, Private Prediction … Continue reading

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Google downgrades the PageRanks of almost all the prediction market websites.

We have seen two PageRank updates this month (October 2007), and the effect of the second wave is just taking effect this morning. BetFair from 7 to 6 InTrade from 6 to 5 TradeSports from 6 to 5 IEM from … Continue reading

Posted in Information Technology, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, The Internet | Tagged , , | 7 Comments

Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule Explained in Five Sentences, Why Betfair Gets So Little U.S. Press Coverage, and other Half-Baked Commentary by Michael Giberson

[Chris Masse invited me to submit to an email interview. I’m responding here to Chris’s questions, rendered in italics below. I'm not sure that anyone other than Chris will be interested, and half-way through he may regret this idea himself. … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

The NewsFutures expiry judgment statements should not be elliptic.

To be respected, a judgment should be respectable. At the minimum, it should be stated. — FOREWORD: As I wrote in my previous blog post on the Harry Potter prediction market, I think that NewsFutures did a good job on … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

British bookmaker William Hill pays both sides on the Harry Potter bet.

Via Niall O’Connor, Bloomberg: William Hill Plc, a London-based bookmaker, will pay out on a number of bets on the fate of Harry Potter because of an “ambiguous ending” to the seventh and final novel about the boy wizard. The … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Were the InTrade prediction markets on the November 2006′s Senate elections accurate?

Revisiting the issue, almost one year later. Lance Fortnow (University of Chicago) wrote: So how did those predictions go? In short you can say the markets predicted every individual race correctly but got the senate wrong, but let us look … Continue reading

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Prediction Markets for the CFO

Here is the presentation I am about to give at the Yahoo confab. In my 10 minutes, I’m going to describe some recent work with Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers on financial market responses to the 2004 and 2006 elections. … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

REPLY–Bo Cowgill (“Color me perplexed…”)

Bo “the Google guy” Cowgill unleashes a counter-broadside: COLOR ME PERPLEXED by Alex Foreshaw’s [snarky sic] rant about this recent TechCentralStation article. Alex [believes] the article was an ideological, intellectually dishonest knee-jerk defense of free markets. Did we read the … Continue reading

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